Applied Digital Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| APLD Stock | USD 27.05 -0.43 -1.56% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year -0.41 | EPS Estimate Next Year -0.90 | Wall Street Target Price 45.2727 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -0.21 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.501 |
This section provides headline-driven context for Applied Digital alongside peer activity. The sentiment layer reflects Applied Digital's options activity and short interest context.
Applied Digital Short Interest View
A sudden spike in Applied Digital's short interest may indicate that institutional investors have identified specific risks - such as earnings disappointments or regulatory events - not yet priced into the market.
200 Day MA 23.087 | Short Percent 0.3074 | Short Ratio 3.04 | Shares Short Prior Month 80.3 M | 50 Day MA 32.4069 |
Applied RSI Context
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.66.Applied Digital Hype-Price Relationship
Sentiment data for Applied Digital synthesizes media coverage, analyst tone, and social engagement into a single signal. When Applied Digital's sentiment diverges sharply from price, a mean-reversion trade may be developing.
For Applied Digital, sentiment analysis reveals whether the prevailing narrative matches business reality. A persistent divergence often resolves in the direction of fundamentals once sentiment normalizes.
Applied Digital Implied Volatility | 1.34 |
When Applied Digital's implied volatility is unusually high relative to its historical average, options premiums are inflated. Sophisticated investors may choose to sell options in this environment to collect elevated premium income.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.66.Applied Digital after-hype prediction price | $ 28.2 |
The sentiment panel provides context that can be compared with forecasting models and technical indicators.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Digital can be used to cross-verify projections for Applied Digital. The historical series provides projection context.Rule 16 Overview for current Applied contract - Risk Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.0838% across the 2026-06-18 option cycle. The figure is a neutral volatility reference; near $ 27.05, it implies about $ 0.0227 per day.
Open Interest Context: Applied 2026-06-18 Options
Open interest represents the number of active Applied Digital option contracts and offers a participation signal.
Applied Digital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Applied Digital on the next trading day is expected to be 26.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.91 , mean absolute percentage error of 6.27 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.66 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Digital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Digital | Applied Digital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Applied Digital uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Digital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Digital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2916 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9095 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0604 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 112.6586 |
The mean reversion effect in Applied Digital is stronger when the initial deviation was driven by sentiment rather than fundamental change. Identifying the root cause of Applied Digital's price dislocation is essential before acting.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The probability distribution for Applied Digital's predicted price encodes the full spectrum of outcomes, weighted by their estimated likelihood. Investors should compare this range against their personal risk tolerance before committing to Applied Digital positions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The news prediction model for Applied Digital analyzes the correlation between Applied Digital's historical headline events and same-day or next-day price movements. Applied Digital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.73 and 35.67, respectively. Predictive accuracy varies significantly across different news categories and market regimes for Applied Digital.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Applied Digital assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Digital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Digital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Digital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.53 | 7.47 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 10 Events | 7 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.05 | 28.20 | 4.25 |
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Hype Timeline
Applied Digital is presently traded for 27.05. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.77, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.49. Applied is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 4.25%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.53%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Digital is about 801.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.54. Applied Digital currently holds about 40.83 M in cash with -115.4 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.44. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 10 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Digital can be used to cross-verify projections for Applied Digital. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
Sector-wide news events often affect Applied Digital before the fundamental impact on Applied Digital's own business becomes clear. Peer hype analysis helps investors distinguish between sector-level sentiment shifts and Applied Digital-specific developments.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AUR | Aurora Innovation | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 4.72 | -5.21 | 19.63 | |
| EPAM | EPAM Systems | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 4.44 | -7.11 | 22.71 | |
| JKHY | Jack Henry Associates | 3.50 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 2.77 | -2.34 | 9.90 | |
| DOX | Amdocs | -0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 1.81 | -2.64 | 10.32 | |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology | -1.47 | 11 per month | 4.05 | 0.02 | 8.73 | -6.75 | 20.29 | |
| APPF | Appfolio | 8.23 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 3.16 | -5.17 | 11.47 | |
| TTAN | ServiceTitan Class A | 6.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 4.88 | -6.41 | 16.39 | |
| OTEX | Open Text Corp | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.20 | 2.79 | -4.20 | 16.88 | |
| TSEM | Tower Semiconductor | -7.14 | 11 per month | 3.67 | 0.05 | 6.11 | -7.76 | 20.41 | |
| CFLT | Confluent | -0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.47 | -0.30 | 1.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Digital
For both new and experienced investors in Applied, the ability to analyze Applied Digital's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Applied Stock can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Applied Digital Related Equities
The following equities are related to Applied Digital within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Applied Digital against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Digital Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Applied Digital helps investors understand the momentum dynamics of the stock in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Applied Digital for maximum return potential.
Applied Digital Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Applied Digital's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Applied Digital's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 5.74 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.7 | |||
| Variance | 59.28 | |||
| Downside Variance | 39.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 38.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -7.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied Digital
Coverage intensity for Applied Digital matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Applied Digital Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Applied Digital matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 201.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 113.9 M |
More Resources for Applied Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Applied Digital starts with financial statements and ratio context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Applied Digital Stock. Key reports that frame Applied Digital Stock are listed below:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Digital can be used to cross-verify projections for Applied Digital. The historical series provides projection context. Our How to Invest in Applied Digital guide provides practical guidance on trading Applied Stock.Analysis related to Applied Digital should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Earnings Share -0.39 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.501 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Applied Digital includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Applied's accounting equity. Applied Digital's market capitalization is 7.56 B. With a P/B ratio of 5.22, the market values Applied Digital well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 8.26 B. Intrinsic value represents an estimate of underlying worth and can differ from both market price and book value. Valuation methods compare these perspectives to frame context.
It is useful to distinguish Applied Digital's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Applied Digital, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 5.22, a profit margin of -47.35%, ROE of -7.9%, and revenue of 215.51 M. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.