Compass Minerals Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CMP Stock | USD 21.50 -0.49 -2.23% |
This page documents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Compass Minerals International as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.75.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Compass Minerals International forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Compass Minerals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Compass Minerals is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.70 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.75 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Compass Minerals | Compass Minerals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Compass Minerals' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9094 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6125 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0265 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Compass Minerals
Any investor evaluating Compass must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Compass Minerals' price movement accurately. Compass Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Compass Minerals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Compass Minerals within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Compass Minerals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compass Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Compass Minerals assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Compass Minerals International.
Compass Minerals Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Compass Minerals is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Compass Minerals' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Variance | 11.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.87 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Compass Minerals
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Compass Minerals International can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Compass Minerals Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Compass Minerals International is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.7 M |
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