Compass Minerals Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

CMP Stock  USD 23.89  0.36  1.53%   
Under current market conditions, the momentum index for Compass Minerals stands at 54, indicating neutral momentum. Values near 50 generally reflect equilibrium between upward and downward pressure.
Momentum 54
 Impartial
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Compass Minerals's price is influenced by both fundamental reality and narrative momentum. This module focuses on narrative momentum - how the current news cycle around Compass Minerals International is likely to influence price in the short term. Key fundamental signals behind Compass Minerals' price prediction:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.92
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.6476
 EPS Estimate Current Year
0.8084
 EPS Estimate Next Year
1.0174
 Wall Street Target Price
25.75
The summary frames Compass Minerals' price response to attention shifts and peer coverage. This section summarizes Compass Minerals' options flow and short interest as sentiment inputs.

Short Interest Metrics for Compass Minerals

Short interest data for Compass Minerals is reported twice a month, providing a lagged but useful view of aggregate bearish positioning in Compass shares.
 200 Day MA
20.2526
 Short Percent
0.0723
 Short Ratio
4.04
 Shares Short Prior Month
1.7 M
 50 Day MA
23.311

RSI Signal: Compass

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 23.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.60.

Hype-to-Price Context for Compass Minerals Int

Investor sentiment toward Compass reflects the aggregated optimism or pessimism of all market participants. Extremes in Compass Minerals' sentiment have historically preceded significant reversals in price direction.
Overvalued stocks supported by excessive positive sentiment are vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality disappoints. Compass Minerals' sentiment score helps gauge how much of its current price is justified by optimism alone.
Compass Minerals Implied Volatility
    
  1.28  
Compass Minerals' implied volatility is a key input in option pricing models such as Black-Scholes. It is the only forward-looking variable in these models, making it the primary driver of option premium changes not explained by price moves in Compass Minerals's stock.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 23.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.60.
Compass Minerals after-hype prediction price
    
  USD 23.91  
This analysis adds an attention layer to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Minerals can be used to cross-verify projections for Compass Minerals. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.

Rule 16 Overview for current Compass contract - Performance Context

Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.08% across the 2026-03-20 option cycle. This context is informational: with Compass Minerals near USD 23.89, the daily move estimate is USD 0.0191 .

Open Interest - Compass Options (2026-03-20)

Open interest for Compass Minerals options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.

Compass Minerals Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Compass price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Compass using various technical indicators. When you analyze Compass charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Compass Minerals is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Compass Minerals Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 23.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.89 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.60 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Compass Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Compass Minerals  Compass Minerals Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Compass Minerals Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Compass Minerals International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
23.89
23.89
Expected Value
27.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.3208
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1611
MADMean absolute deviation0.6543
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0289
SAESum of the absolute errors38.605
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Compass Minerals International price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Compass Minerals. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future
While mean reversion in Compass Minerals' is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
20.3023.9127.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.6824.2927.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.5223.8926.26
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.4325.7528.58
Details
To derive maximum value from Compass Minerals analysis, compare Compass Minerals' metrics against peers. This cross-sectional approach separates idiosyncratic performance from sector-level trends.

Compass Minerals After-Hype Price Density Analysis

One key insight from Compass Minerals' price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Compass Minerals's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Compass Minerals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Historical analysis of Compass Minerals reveals distinct patterns in how Compass Minerals' price responds to different categories of news. Compass Minerals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.30 and 27.52, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Compass Minerals has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
23.89
23.91
After-hype Price
27.52
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Compass Minerals International assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Compass Minerals Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Compass Minerals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Compass Minerals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Compass Minerals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.61 
3.61
  0.02 
  0.05 
8 Events
8 Events
In 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
23.89
23.91
0.08 
12,033  
Notes

Compass Minerals Hype Timeline

On the 10th of March Compass Minerals Int is traded for 23.89. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Compass is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 23.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.61%. The volatility of related hype on Compass Minerals is about 4247.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.84. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.24 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was -79.8 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 322.7 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 8 days.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Minerals can be used to cross-verify projections for Compass Minerals. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.

Compass Minerals Related Hype Analysis

Tracking the hype elasticity of Compass Minerals' direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Compass Minerals's short-term price behavior.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NEXANexa Resources SA-0.54 9 per month 4.41 0.15 7.80 -8.57 27.27
GTIGTI-0.04 7 per month 14.30 0.03 19.74 -10.95 128.11
LARLithium Argentina AG-0.15 8 per month 4.80 0.08 8.81 -7.79 29.06
ABATAmerican Battery Technology-0.11 8 per month 5.30 0.03 10.78 -8.38 38.57
NBNioCorp Developments Ltd-0.78 12 per month 0.00 -0.01 12.26 -11.07 35.70
NMGNouveau Monde Graphite 0.09 9 per month 0.00 -0.07 6.94 -10.70 22.78
SGMLSigma Lithium Resources-0.03 11 per month 6.81 0.05 15.91 -13.89 41.08
IAUXi 80 Gold Corp 0.06 8 per month 3.57 0.16 6.38 -6.73 21.04
ODCOil Dri 0.66 8 per month 2.73 0.11 3.22 -3.13 15.65
GSMFerroglobe PLC-0.01 8 per month 2.90 0.03 5.52 -4.67 15.15

Other Forecasting Options for Compass Minerals

Any investor evaluating Compass must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Compass Minerals' price movement accurately. Compass Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.

Compass Minerals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compass Minerals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compass Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compass Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Compass Minerals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Compass Minerals assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Compass Minerals International.

Compass Minerals Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Compass Minerals' is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Compass Minerals' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Compass Minerals

Coverage intensity for Compass Minerals International matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Compass Minerals Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Compass Minerals International matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding41.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments59.7 M

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