Compass Minerals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CMP Stock | USD 25.57 1.13 4.62% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 24.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.24. Compass Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Compass Minerals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Compass Minerals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Compass Minerals fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Compass Minerals' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.92) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.25 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.7512 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0067 | Wall Street Target Price 22.5 |
Using Compass Minerals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Compass Minerals International from the perspective of Compass Minerals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Compass Minerals using Compass Minerals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Compass using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Compass Minerals' stock price.
Compass Minerals Short Interest
An investor who is long Compass Minerals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Compass Minerals and may potentially protect profits, hedge Compass Minerals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 18.6199 | Short Percent 0.0741 | Short Ratio 2.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.3 M | 50 Day MA 19.6728 |
Compass Minerals Int Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Compass Minerals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Compass. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Compass can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Compass Minerals International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Compass Minerals Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
Compass Minerals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Compass Minerals International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Compass Minerals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Compass Minerals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Compass Minerals' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 24.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.24. Compass Minerals after-hype prediction price | USD 26.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Minerals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Compass contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Compass Minerals International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Compass Minerals trading at USD 25.57, that is roughly USD 0.0121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Compass Minerals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Compass Minerals International options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Compass Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Compass Minerals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Compass Minerals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Compass Minerals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Compass Minerals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Compass Minerals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Compass Minerals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Compass. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Compass Minerals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Compass price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Compass using various technical indicators. When you analyze Compass charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
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Compass Minerals Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Compass Minerals' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2003-12-31 | Previous Quarter 79.4 M | Current Value 59.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 82.2 M |
Compass Minerals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 24.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Compass Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Compass Minerals | Compass Minerals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Compass Minerals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Compass Minerals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Compass Minerals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.39 and 27.94, respectively. We have considered Compass Minerals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5163 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0297 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.2425 |
Predictive Modules for Compass Minerals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compass Minerals Int. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Compass Minerals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Compass Minerals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Compass Minerals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Compass Minerals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Compass Minerals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Compass Minerals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Compass Minerals' historical news coverage. Compass Minerals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.92 and 29.48, respectively. We have considered Compass Minerals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Compass Minerals is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Compass Minerals Int is based on 3 months time horizon.
Compass Minerals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Compass Minerals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Compass Minerals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Compass Minerals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.69 | 3.28 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
25.57 | 26.20 | 2.46 |
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Compass Minerals Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Compass Minerals Int is traded for 25.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.63, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Compass is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 26.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 2.46%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.69%. The volatility of related hype on Compass Minerals is about 6978.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.54. Compass Minerals International has 901.6 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 2.94, meaning that the company heavily relies on borrowing funds for operations. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Minerals to cross-verify your projections.Compass Minerals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Compass Minerals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Compass Minerals' future price movements. Getting to know how Compass Minerals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Compass Minerals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NEXA | Nexa Resources SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.77 | 0.39 | 7.15 | (3.52) | 15.16 | |
| GTI | GTI | (0.32) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 25.76 | (30.59) | 78.61 | |
| LAR | Lithium Argentina AG | 0.08 | 10 per month | 3.00 | 0.24 | 9.27 | (5.96) | 22.80 | |
| ABAT | American Battery Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.92 | (0) | 10.78 | (9.63) | 35.69 | |
| NB | NioCorp Developments Ltd | 0.35 | 7 per month | 6.07 | 0.03 | 9.52 | (9.11) | 22.57 | |
| NMG | Nouveau Monde Graphite | (0.06) | 10 per month | 5.49 | (0) | 6.88 | (7.51) | 29.51 | |
| SGML | Sigma Lithium Resources | (1.41) | 11 per month | 6.77 | 0.16 | 15.91 | (13.89) | 48.40 | |
| IAUX | i 80 Gold Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.55 | 0.34 | 5.62 | (3.31) | 14.98 | |
| ODC | Oil Dri | 0.89 | 7 per month | 2.82 | (0.02) | 3.16 | (3.03) | 15.64 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.23 | (0) | 5.66 | (5.47) | 19.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Compass Minerals
For every potential investor in Compass, whether a beginner or expert, Compass Minerals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Compass Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Compass. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Compass Minerals' price trends.Compass Minerals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Compass Minerals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Compass Minerals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Compass Minerals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compass Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Compass Minerals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Compass Minerals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Compass Minerals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Compass Minerals International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 39750.86 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.8626 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.29 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.98 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.13 |
Compass Minerals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Compass Minerals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Compass Minerals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting compass stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Variance | 10.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Compass Minerals
The number of cover stories for Compass Minerals depends on current market conditions and Compass Minerals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Compass Minerals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Compass Minerals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Compass Minerals Short Properties
Compass Minerals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Compass Minerals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Compass Minerals International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Compass Minerals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Compass Minerals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.7 M |
Additional Tools for Compass Stock Analysis
When running Compass Minerals' price analysis, check to measure Compass Minerals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Compass Minerals is operating at the current time. Most of Compass Minerals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Compass Minerals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Compass Minerals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Compass Minerals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.