Compass Minerals Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CMP Stock | USD 21.98 -0.74 -3.26% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.92 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6476 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8084 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.0174 | Wall Street Target Price 25.75 |
The summary frames Compass Minerals' price response to attention shifts and peer coverage. This section summarizes Compass Minerals' options flow and short interest as sentiment inputs.
Short Interest Metrics for Compass Minerals
Short interest data for Compass Minerals is reported twice a month, providing a lagged but useful view of aggregate bearish positioning in Compass shares.
200 Day MA 20.3327 | Short Percent 0.0672 | Short Ratio 3.92 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.8 M | 50 Day MA 23.5656 |
RSI Signal: Compass
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24.Hype-to-Price Context for Compass Minerals
Investor sentiment toward Compass reflects the aggregated optimism or pessimism of all market participants. Extremes in Compass Minerals' sentiment have historically preceded significant reversals in price direction.
Overvalued stocks supported by excessive positive sentiment are vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality disappoints. Compass Minerals' sentiment score helps gauge how much of its current price is justified by optimism alone.
Compass Minerals Implied Volatility | 1.81 |
Compass Minerals' implied volatility is a key input in option pricing models such as Black-Scholes. It is the only forward-looking variable in these models, making it the primary driver of option premium changes not explained by price moves in Compass Minerals's stock.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24.Compass Minerals after-hype prediction price | $ 21.99 |
This analysis adds an attention layer to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Minerals can be used to cross-verify projections for Compass Minerals. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Rule 16 Overview for current Compass contract - Performance Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.11% across the 2026-03-20 option cycle. This context is informational: with Compass Minerals near $ 21.98, the daily move estimate is $ 0.0249 .
Open Interest - Compass Options (2026-03-20)
Open interest for Compass Minerals options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.
Compass Minerals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Compass price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Compass using various technical indicators. When you analyze Compass charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Compass Minerals International on the next trading day is expected to be 21.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.70 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.24 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Compass Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Compass Minerals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Compass Minerals | Compass Minerals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Compass Minerals International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Compass Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Compass Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0814 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6142 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.24 |
While mean reversion in Compass Minerals is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from Compass Minerals' price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Compass Minerals's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of Compass Minerals reveals distinct patterns in how Compass Minerals' price responds to different categories of news. Compass Minerals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.46 and 25.52, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Compass Minerals has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Compass Minerals International assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Compass Minerals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Compass Minerals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Compass Minerals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 3.50 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 8 Events | 7 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.98 | 21.99 | 0.05 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 15th of March 2026 Compass Minerals is traded for 21.98. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Compass is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Compass Minerals is about 1851.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.04. The company reported last year's revenue of 1.24 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was -79.8 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 322.7 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 8 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Compass Minerals can be used to cross-verify projections for Compass Minerals. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of Compass Minerals' direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Compass Minerals's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NEXA | Nexa Resources SA | -0.01 | 9 per month | 4.41 | 0.15 | 7.80 | -8.57 | 27.27 | |
| GTI | GTI | -0.04 | 7 per month | 14.30 | 0.04 | 19.74 | -10.95 | 128.11 | |
| LAR | Lithium Argentina AG | -0.35 | 9 per month | 4.88 | 0.10 | 8.81 | -7.79 | 29.06 | |
| ABAT | American Battery Technology | 0.28 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 10.26 | -8.38 | 38.57 | |
| NB | NioCorp Developments Ltd | 0.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 9.52 | -11.07 | 35.70 | |
| NMG | Nouveau Monde Graphite | 0.35 | 21 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 6.94 | -10.70 | 21.79 | |
| SGML | Sigma Lithium Resources | -0.03 | 11 per month | 6.79 | 0.05 | 15.91 | -13.89 | 41.08 | |
| IAUX | i 80 Gold Corp | 0.07 | 15 per month | 3.78 | 0.14 | 6.38 | -6.73 | 21.04 | |
| ODC | Oil Dri | 1.80 | 7 per month | 2.76 | 0.15 | 3.22 | -3.13 | 12.55 | |
| GSM | Ferroglobe PLC | -0.38 | 8 per month | 3.02 | 0.03 | 5.52 | -5.10 | 15.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Compass Minerals
Any investor evaluating Compass must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Compass Minerals' price movement accurately. Compass Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Compass Minerals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Compass Minerals within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Compass Minerals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Compass Minerals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Compass Minerals assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Compass Minerals International.
Compass Minerals Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Compass Minerals is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Compass Minerals' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.49 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 17.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Compass Minerals
Coverage intensity for Compass Minerals International matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Compass Minerals Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Compass Minerals International matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 59.7 M |
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