Shoe Carnival Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| SCVL Stock | USD 19.00 0.33 1.71% |
Shoe Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Shoe Carnival's share price is at 51. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Shoe Carnival, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Shoe Carnival hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shoe Carnival from the perspective of Shoe Carnival response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Shoe Carnival on the next trading day is expected to be 19.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.48. Shoe Carnival after-hype prediction price | USD 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shoe Carnival to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.Shoe Carnival Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Shoe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shoe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shoe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Shoe Carnival Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Shoe Carnival on the next trading day is expected to be 19.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shoe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shoe Carnival's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shoe Carnival Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Shoe Carnival | Shoe Carnival Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Shoe Carnival Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shoe Carnival's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shoe Carnival's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.95 and 22.05, respectively. We have considered Shoe Carnival's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shoe Carnival stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shoe Carnival stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.166 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0079 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4318 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.475 |
Predictive Modules for Shoe Carnival
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shoe Carnival. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Shoe Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Shoe Carnival After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Shoe Carnival at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shoe Carnival or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shoe Carnival, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Shoe Carnival Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Shoe Carnival's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shoe Carnival's historical news coverage. Shoe Carnival's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 3.05, respectively. We have considered Shoe Carnival's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Shoe Carnival is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shoe Carnival is based on 3 months time horizon.
Shoe Carnival Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shoe Carnival is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shoe Carnival backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shoe Carnival, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 3.05 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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Shoe Carnival Hype Timeline
Shoe Carnival is at this time traded for 19.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Shoe is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Shoe Carnival is about 3244.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.99. About 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.76. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Shoe Carnival has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.95. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 20th of July 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shoe Carnival to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.Shoe Carnival Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Shoe Carnival's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shoe Carnival's future price movements. Getting to know how Shoe Carnival's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shoe Carnival may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OXM | Oxford Industries | (0.18) | 2 per month | 5.12 | (0.01) | 6.99 | (5.59) | 30.64 | |
| SFIX | Stitch Fix | (0.03) | 8 per month | 3.23 | 0.03 | 5.32 | (5.27) | 16.99 | |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corp | (0.25) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.90 | (3.99) | 10.51 | |
| CAL | Caleres | (0.26) | 3 per month | 3.49 | 0 | 8.13 | (5.59) | 19.93 | |
| BALY | Ballys Corp | 0.04 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.47 | (5.51) | 16.79 | |
| HZO | MarineMax | (0.26) | 21 per month | 2.81 | 0.01 | 6.76 | (4.50) | 16.01 | |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.52 | (0) | 5.22 | (5.11) | 16.41 | |
| CPS | Cooper Stnd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.82 | (5.11) | 17.42 | |
| MLR | Miller Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.87 | (0.02) | 2.66 | (2.49) | 7.96 | |
| GDEN | Golden Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.08 | 2.51 | (2.31) | 37.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Shoe Carnival
For every potential investor in Shoe, whether a beginner or expert, Shoe Carnival's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shoe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shoe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shoe Carnival's price trends.Shoe Carnival Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shoe Carnival stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shoe Carnival could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shoe Carnival by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shoe Carnival Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shoe Carnival stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shoe Carnival shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shoe Carnival stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shoe Carnival entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Shoe Carnival Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shoe Carnival's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shoe Carnival's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shoe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Shoe Carnival
The number of cover stories for Shoe Carnival depends on current market conditions and Shoe Carnival's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shoe Carnival is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shoe Carnival's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Shoe Carnival Short Properties
Shoe Carnival's future price predictability will typically decrease when Shoe Carnival's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Shoe Carnival often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Shoe Carnival's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Shoe Carnival's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shoe Carnival to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Shoe Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Shoe Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Shoe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Shoe Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Shoe Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Shoe Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Shoe Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Shoe Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.