Shoe Carnival Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SCVL Stock | USD 17.69 0.27 1.55% |
This reference page covers Double Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Shoe Carnival, including the projected price and deviation metrics. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shoe Carnival on the next trading day is expected to be 17.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.10.When Shoe Carnival prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Shoe Carnival trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Shoe Carnival observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for Shoe Carnival are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shoe Carnival on the next trading day is expected to be 17.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.25 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.10 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shoe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shoe Carnival's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting Shoe Carnival for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 15.02 on the downside to about 20.09 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shoe Carnival stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shoe Carnival stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0926 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4085 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.0993 |
Other Forecasting Options for Shoe Carnival
Price movement is the most critical factor for any investor assessing the potential of Shoe as an investment. The noise inherent in Shoe Stock price charts can obscure the underlying direction and make investment decisions more challenging.Shoe Carnival Related Equities
The following equities are related to Shoe Carnival within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Shoe Carnival against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shoe Carnival Market Strength Events
For investors in Shoe Carnival, market strength indicators provide essential context about how the stock responds to prevailing market trends. These tools support more informed decisions about when to trade Shoe Carnival for maximum effect.
Shoe Carnival Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Shoe Carnival's risk indicators provides investors with important context for price forecasting and investment decision-making. By understanding how much risk is embedded in Shoe Carnival's investment, investors can make better choices about position sizing,.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Variance | 6.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Shoe Carnival
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Shoe Carnival can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Shoe Carnival Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Shoe Carnival matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 123.1 M |