Howmet Aerospace Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HWM Stock | USD 217.70 7.30 3.24% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Howmet Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 217.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.26. Howmet Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Howmet Aerospace's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Howmet Aerospace's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Howmet Aerospace fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Howmet Aerospace's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Howmet Aerospace, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.173 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9426 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.6968 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4536 | Wall Street Target Price 246.746 |
Using Howmet Aerospace hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Howmet Aerospace from the perspective of Howmet Aerospace response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Howmet Aerospace using Howmet Aerospace's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Howmet using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Howmet Aerospace's stock price.
Howmet Aerospace Short Interest
An investor who is long Howmet Aerospace may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Howmet Aerospace and may potentially protect profits, hedge Howmet Aerospace with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 181.929 | Short Percent 0.0353 | Short Ratio 5.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.5 M | 50 Day MA 205.5296 |
Howmet Aerospace Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Howmet Aerospace's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Howmet. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Howmet can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Howmet Aerospace. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Howmet Aerospace Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
Howmet Aerospace's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Howmet Aerospace stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Howmet Aerospace's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Howmet Aerospace stock will not fluctuate a lot when Howmet Aerospace's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Howmet Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 217.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.26.
Howmet Aerospace after-hype prediction price | USD 217.7 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Howmet Aerospace to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Howmet contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Howmet Aerospace will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Howmet Aerospace trading at USD 217.7, that is roughly USD 0.0585 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Howmet Aerospace's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Howmet Aerospace options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Howmet Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Howmet Aerospace's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Howmet Aerospace's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Howmet Aerospace stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Howmet Aerospace's open interest, investors have to compare it to Howmet Aerospace's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Howmet Aerospace is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Howmet. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Howmet Aerospace Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Howmet price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Howmet using various technical indicators. When you analyze Howmet charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Howmet Aerospace Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Howmet Aerospace on the next trading day is expected to be 217.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.79, mean absolute percentage error of 11.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 167.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Howmet Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Howmet Aerospace's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Howmet Aerospace Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Howmet Aerospace | Howmet Aerospace Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Howmet Aerospace Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Howmet Aerospace's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Howmet Aerospace's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 216.21 and 219.37, respectively. We have considered Howmet Aerospace's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Howmet Aerospace stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Howmet Aerospace stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4513 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.7876 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 167.2572 |
Predictive Modules for Howmet Aerospace
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Howmet Aerospace. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Howmet Aerospace's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Howmet Aerospace After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Howmet Aerospace at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Howmet Aerospace or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Howmet Aerospace, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Howmet Aerospace Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Howmet Aerospace's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Howmet Aerospace's historical news coverage. Howmet Aerospace's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 216.12 and 219.28, respectively. We have considered Howmet Aerospace's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Howmet Aerospace is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Howmet Aerospace is based on 3 months time horizon.
Howmet Aerospace Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Howmet Aerospace is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Howmet Aerospace backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Howmet Aerospace, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.58 | 0.87 | 0.26 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
217.70 | 217.70 | 0.00 |
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Howmet Aerospace Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Howmet Aerospace is traded for 217.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.87, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.26. Howmet is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 25.32%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Howmet Aerospace is about 85.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 217.96. About 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.8. Howmet Aerospace last dividend was issued on the 6th of February 2026. The entity had 667:500 split on the 1st of November 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Howmet Aerospace to cross-verify your projections.Howmet Aerospace Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Howmet Aerospace's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Howmet Aerospace's future price movements. Getting to know how Howmet Aerospace's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Howmet Aerospace may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMR | Emerson Electric | (0.44) | 19 per month | 1.56 | 0.09 | 2.36 | (2.84) | 8.01 | |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | 3.47 | 4 per month | 1.42 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (2.82) | 6.43 | |
| PH | Parker Hannifin | 3.47 | 4 per month | 0.66 | 0.19 | 2.46 | (1.59) | 9.94 | |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 0.90 | 26 per month | 1.37 | 0.06 | 2.85 | (1.59) | 9.88 | |
| MMM | 3M Company | 3.47 | 10 per month | 1.72 | (0) | 2.33 | (2.10) | 14.62 | |
| CMI | Cummins | 0.60 | 24 per month | 1.09 | 0.24 | 2.87 | (2.39) | 9.83 | |
| WM | Waste Management | 3.47 | 4 per month | 1.21 | 0 | 2.06 | (1.57) | 5.20 | |
| UPS | United Parcel Service | (0.51) | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.17 | 2.75 | (2.40) | 11.51 | |
| TDG | Transdigm Group Incorporated | 0.60 | 16 per month | 0.86 | 0.07 | 2.16 | (1.73) | 4.99 | |
| JCI | Johnson Controls International | 3.47 | 8 per month | 1.58 | (0.0007) | 1.94 | (2.08) | 15.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for Howmet Aerospace
For every potential investor in Howmet, whether a beginner or expert, Howmet Aerospace's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Howmet Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Howmet. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Howmet Aerospace's price trends.Howmet Aerospace Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Howmet Aerospace stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Howmet Aerospace could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Howmet Aerospace by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Howmet Aerospace Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Howmet Aerospace stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Howmet Aerospace shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Howmet Aerospace stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Howmet Aerospace entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 127247.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.74) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 221.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 219.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (7.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.30) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.84 |
Howmet Aerospace Risk Indicators
The analysis of Howmet Aerospace's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Howmet Aerospace's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting howmet stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Variance | 2.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.13 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Howmet Aerospace
The number of cover stories for Howmet Aerospace depends on current market conditions and Howmet Aerospace's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Howmet Aerospace is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Howmet Aerospace's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Howmet Aerospace Short Properties
Howmet Aerospace's future price predictability will typically decrease when Howmet Aerospace's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Howmet Aerospace often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Howmet Aerospace's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Howmet Aerospace's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 410 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 564 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Howmet Aerospace to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Howmet Stock, please use our How to Invest in Howmet Aerospace guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Howmet Aerospace. If investors know Howmet will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Howmet Aerospace listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.173 | Dividend Share 0.52 | Earnings Share 3.57 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.138 |
The market value of Howmet Aerospace is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Howmet that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Howmet Aerospace's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Howmet Aerospace's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Howmet Aerospace's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Howmet Aerospace's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Howmet Aerospace's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Howmet Aerospace is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Howmet Aerospace's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.