Cisco Systems Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| CSCO Stock | USD 74.33 0.64 0.87% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cisco Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 74.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.72. Cisco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Cisco Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cisco Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cisco Systems fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Cisco Systems' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.06 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.1233 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.4735 | Wall Street Target Price 85.9991 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.9817 |
Using Cisco Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cisco Systems from the perspective of Cisco Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Cisco Systems using Cisco Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Cisco using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Cisco Systems' stock price.
Cisco Systems Short Interest
An investor who is long Cisco Systems may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Cisco Systems and may potentially protect profits, hedge Cisco Systems with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 68.6561 | Short Percent 0.0154 | Short Ratio 3.14 | Shares Short Prior Month 54.9 M | 50 Day MA 76.4538 |
Cisco Systems Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Cisco Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Cisco. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Cisco can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Cisco Systems. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Cisco Systems Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
Cisco Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Cisco Systems stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Cisco Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Cisco Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Cisco Systems' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cisco Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 74.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.72. Cisco Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 74.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cisco Systems to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Cisco contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Cisco Systems will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Cisco Systems trading at USD 74.33, that is roughly USD 0.0149 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Cisco Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Cisco Systems options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Cisco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Cisco Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Cisco Systems' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Cisco Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Cisco Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Cisco Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Cisco Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Cisco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Cisco Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cisco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cisco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cisco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cisco Systems Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cisco Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 74.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cisco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cisco Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cisco Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cisco Systems | Cisco Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Cisco Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cisco Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cisco Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 72.85 and 75.64, respectively. We have considered Cisco Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cisco Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cisco Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2061 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8258 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.7212 |
Predictive Modules for Cisco Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cisco Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cisco Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cisco Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cisco Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cisco Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cisco Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cisco Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cisco Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cisco Systems' historical news coverage. Cisco Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 72.94 and 75.72, respectively. We have considered Cisco Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cisco Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cisco Systems is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cisco Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cisco Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cisco Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cisco Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.39 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
74.33 | 74.33 | 0.00 |
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Cisco Systems Hype Timeline
Cisco Systems is currently traded for 74.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Cisco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Cisco Systems is about 145.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 74.41. About 81.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.63. Cisco Systems last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 23rd of March 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cisco Systems to cross-verify your projections.Cisco Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cisco Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cisco Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Cisco Systems' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cisco Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IBM | International Business Machines | 5.53 | 9 per month | 1.75 | (0) | 2.54 | (2.89) | 12.56 | |
| SAP | SAP SE ADR | (3.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.52 | (2.86) | 5.85 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | (1.49) | 10 per month | 2.94 | 0.24 | 8.93 | (5.56) | 19.80 | |
| CRM | Salesforce | 7.72 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 3.22 | (3.10) | 12.37 | |
| MSI | Motorola Solutions | 2.86 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.52 | (2.19) | 6.99 | |
| UBER | Uber Technologies | 0.66 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.60 | (3.82) | 10.23 | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | 1.06 | 7 per month | 2.50 | 0.19 | 6.26 | (4.85) | 12.15 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | (9.00) | 9 per month | 2.06 | 0.18 | 5.00 | (3.61) | 10.80 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 7.72 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.48 | (3.93) | 15.88 | |
| ANET | Arista Networks | (2.35) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.40 | (4.56) | 12.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cisco Systems
For every potential investor in Cisco, whether a beginner or expert, Cisco Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cisco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cisco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cisco Systems' price trends.Cisco Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cisco Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cisco Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cisco Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cisco Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cisco Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cisco Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cisco Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cisco Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Cisco Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cisco Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cisco Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cisco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9877 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cisco Systems
The number of cover stories for Cisco Systems depends on current market conditions and Cisco Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cisco Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cisco Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cisco Systems Short Properties
Cisco Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Cisco Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cisco Systems often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cisco Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cisco Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cisco Systems to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Cisco Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cisco Systems guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Is Communications Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cisco Systems. If investors know Cisco will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cisco Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.06 | Dividend Share 1.63 | Earnings Share 2.6 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.075 |
The market value of Cisco Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cisco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cisco Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cisco Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cisco Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cisco Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cisco Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cisco Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cisco Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.