Shopify Stock Volatility
| SHOP Stock | USD 126.61 0.03 0.02% |
Shopify continues to trade with a minimal volatility profile through the current horizon. It exhibits a Sharpe Ratio (Efficiency) of -0.0885, supporting negative efficiency readings over the last 3 months. We identified 23 technical indicators influencing current risk dynamics.
Sharpe Ratio = -0.0885
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| Cash | Small Risk | Average Risk | High Risk | Huge Risk |
| Negative Returns | SHOP |
Shopify reported a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.2%, a Risk of 3.74, and a Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.1%. Shopify has not reached its return potential based on moving average analysis. Including it in a well-diversified portfolio can reduce portfolio-level risk.
Key indicators related to Shopify's volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Investors holding Shopify should monitor Shopify's rolling volatility as part of ongoing risk management. A sudden spike in Shopify volatility, even without a directional price move, can signal increased uncertainty and potential for larger price swings ahead.
Volatility Strategy
Volatility clustering in Shopify may influence portfolio rebalancing frequency. Current statistical measures show total volatility near 3.74% with a beta coefficient of 1.62, indicating sensitivity relative to the broader market benchmark. Risk-adjusted efficiency, represented by a Sharpe ratio of -0.0885, evaluates return per unit of total risk. An alpha value of -0.25 reflects performance relative to systematic market exposure. Expected return estimates near -0.33% are derived from historical distribution modeling and help frame forward-looking return assumptions within a portfolio context. Stock volatility often increases around earnings releases and guidance updates.
Main indicators related to Shopify's market risk premium analysis include:
Beta 1.62 | Alpha -0.25 | Risk 3.74 | Sharpe Ratio -0.09 | Expected Return -0.33 |
Moving together with Shopify Stock
| 0.63 | TCX | Tucows Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | GDDY | Godaddy | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | FCT | Firstwave Cloud | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | OKTA | Okta Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | CSAI | Cloudastructure Class | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | AMZN | Amazon Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | JD | JD Inc Adr Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | ACN | Accenture plc Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Shopify Stock
| 0.92 | WMT | Walmart Common Stock Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | SAR | Saratoga Investment Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | FSLY | Fastly Class A | PairCorr |
| 0.37 | CRWV | CoreWeave Class A Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
Sensitivity To Market
The systematic risk of Shopify is captured by a beta reading of 1.62, indicating responsiveness to overall market fluctuations. Observed volatility is near 3.74%.Volatility measures for Shopify summarize how wide the trading range has been over time. Downside deviation is about 0.0%. Options markets imply a forward-looking volatility estimate near 66.0%. This suggests the market is pricing in the possibility of wider future price swings compared to recent historical dispersion. For individual stocks, volatility often rises around earnings, guidance updates, and major company news.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Shopify Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Shopify correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Downside Risk
Shopify standard deviation is a volatility measure that captures how far daily prices deviate from their mean over the selected period. Volatile instruments have high standard deviations; stable instruments have low.
Standard Deviation | 3.74 |
Standard deviation captures Shopify's total volatility, including favorable price movements that most investors don't consider risky. Downside deviation isolates the true loss risk in Shopify's daily returns. Shopify reported a Maximum Drawdown of 15.50.
Using Shopify Put Option to Manage Risk Based on 2026-06-18 Contracts
Shopify reported an Option Implied Volatility of 0.66 and an Option Max Pain Price of 125. Put options are an effective way to hedge Shopify's downside risk without liquidating the position. A put on Shopify Stock gives the buyer the right to sell Shopify at a fixed price until expiration.
Shopify's PUT expiring on 2026-06-18
Profit |
| Shopify Price At Expiration |
Current Shopify Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | SHOP260618P00040000 | -0.005264 | 2.38E-4 | 1508 | 2026-06-18 | 0.01 - 0.24 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00045000 | -0.007717 | 3.51E-4 | 3130 | 2026-06-18 | 0.0 - 0.18 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00050000 | -0.008557 | 4.25E-4 | 101 | 2026-06-18 | 0.1 - 0.26 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00055000 | -0.011725 | 5.92E-4 | 97 | 2026-06-18 | 0.05 - 0.46 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00060000 | -0.017385 | 8.6E-4 | 443 | 2026-06-18 | 0.25 - 0.61 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00065000 | -0.027704 | 0.001281 | 777 | 2026-06-18 | 0.28 - 0.69 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00070000 | -0.04258 | 0.001817 | 375 | 2026-06-18 | 0.75 - 1.07 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00075000 | -0.052694 | 0.002291 | 155 | 2026-06-18 | 0.92 - 1.5 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00080000 | -0.073024 | 0.002979 | 396 | 2026-06-18 | 1.6 - 1.93 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00085000 | -0.098034 | 0.003732 | 2019 | 2026-06-18 | 2.27 - 2.56 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SHOP260618P00090000 | -0.123631 | 0.004524 | 8651 | 2026-06-18 | 2.9 - 3.55 | 0.0 | View |
Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility in Shopify reflects the degree of uncertainty around Shopify's stock price. When Shopify experiences high volatility, its stock price can shift dramatically in a short period. Conversely, low Shopify's volatility suggests price stability and predictability.
Transformation |
This analysis covers sixty-one data points across the selected time horizon. Shopify Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Shopify has a beta of 1.6227 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Shopify will likely underperform.Shopify volatility reflects broader stock market cycles alongside company or sector-specific developments. Diversified portfolios reduce specific exposure but not systemic risk. Shopify reported a Mean Deviation of 2.80, an Option Implied Volatility of 0.66, and a Standard Deviation of 3.69.
Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives Shopify's Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence Shopify's market volatility:Industry Dynamics
Sector-level events can directly affect Shopify's price stability. Regulatory changes, supply disruptions, or shifts in demand within Shopify's industry may create volatility even when the broader market is calm. Competitive dynamics and industry consolidation can also amplify price swings for companies like Shopify.Political and Economic Environment
Macroeconomic conditions and policy decisions shape the backdrop for Shopify's price movements. Interest rate changes, trade policy shifts, and fiscal legislation can all alter investor sentiment toward Shopify. During periods of economic expansion, Shopify's price tends to benefit from broader market optimism, while downturns can amplify selling pressure.Shopify's Company-Specific Factors
Volatility can also stem from events unique to Shopify. Earnings surprises, management changes, product launches, or legal developments may trigger sharp price reactions in Shopify's stock. Conversely, operational setbacks, guidance revisions, or data breaches can weigh on Shopify's share price.Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Shopify is -1129.35. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 13.97 and standard deviation of 3.74. The mean deviation of Shopify is currently at 2.83. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.8
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.2525 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.62 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.74 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0729 |
Stock Return Volatility
Daily return volatility for Shopify measures how far stock returns deviate from their average on a day-to-day basis. The company shows 3.7376% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. For comparison, Dow Jones Industrial has volatility of 0.8013% on return distribution over a 90-day investment horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
Related Correlations Analysis
Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
| High negative correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
Strong stock returns do not always mean Shopify Company is outperforming its peers on a fundamental level. A thorough review of Shopify's risk-adjusted indicators provides a clearer picture of whether returns are being earned efficiently. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 4.12 | -0.50 | 0.00 | -0.29 | 0.00 | 7.44 | 32.87 | |||
| UBER | 1.56 | -0.35 | 0.00 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 11.09 | |||
| CRM | 1.82 | -0.37 | 0.00 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 3.41 | 9.78 | |||
| NOW | 2.39 | -0.56 | 0.00 | -3.89 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 13.48 | |||
| INTU | 2.32 | -0.50 | 0.00 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 3.70 | 15.22 | |||
| ANET | 2.61 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 3.02 | 5.41 | 15.27 | |||
| SAP | 1.63 | -0.32 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 3.08 | 19.03 | |||
| LRCX | 2.90 | 0.55 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 3.22 | 6.99 | 17.49 | |||
| QCOM | 1.39 | -0.41 | 0.00 | -0.31 | 0.00 | 1.93 | 11.98 | |||
| AMAT | 2.49 | 0.49 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 3.01 | 5.75 | 14.36 |
Risk Metrics, Assumptions & Methodology
Volatility for Shopify measures return dispersion and uncertainty over time. Market stress typically elevates dispersion and correlation risk. Shopify has a market cap of 160.47 B, P/E of 282.85, ROE of 9.84%.
This section for Shopify is built from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, with harmonization applied to align reporting definitions. Analyst projections are included when active coverage applies. Values may update on different source schedules. Volatility and downside metrics are estimated from historical return dispersion.
This content is curated and reviewed by:
Michael Smolkin - Member of Macroaxis Board of DirectorsShopify Investment Opportunity
Shopify is about 4.68 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial based on recent return behavior. Across the current 90-day horizon, that places the security below 33% of the broader equity and portfolio universe on a pure volatility basis.You can use Shopify to enhance the returns of your portfolios. This price-change note interprets the latest move in the context of short-horizon trading behavior. It highlights whether the move looks ordinary, stressed, or unusually speculative for the instrument. a normal upward fluctuation. Check odds of Shopify to be traded at $132.94 in 90 days.Very good diversification
For the present investment horizon, the measured correlation between SHOP and DJI stands at -0.21, or Very good diversification. The cleaner interpretation is to review correlation beside volatility, expected return, and the role each holding plays in the portfolio.
Shopify Additional Risk Indicators
Looking at additional risk metrics for Shopify helps investors judge how the position may behave under different market and portfolio conditions. The stronger process compares similar securities with comparable growth and valuation context before ranking one as more or less risky.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.05 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | -0.17 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | -1,292 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Variance | 13.61 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.07 |
Shopify Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair analysis around Shopify matters because it can turn one security idea into a more market-neutral structure. A disciplined pair strategy still requires monitoring because correlation can weaken when market regimes change.
Pair diversification lowers overall risk, though certain risk categories remain unaffected regardless of how positions are paired. Systematic risk - the risk tied to the overall market - cannot be eliminated by pairing Shopify with another position. However, Shopify's company-specific risk can be partially offset by selecting a pair that does not move in lockstep with Shopify.
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