Geo Group Stock Price Patterns
| GEO Stock | USD 16.11 0.04 0.25% |
Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.526 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.315 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8533 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2725 | Wall Street Target Price 32.25 |
Using Geo hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Geo Group from the perspective of Geo response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Geo using Geo's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Geo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Geo's stock price.
Geo Short Interest
An investor who is long Geo may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Geo and may potentially protect profits, hedge Geo with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 21.0608 | Short Percent 0.0757 | Short Ratio 5.08 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.3 M | 50 Day MA 16.6178 |
Geo Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Geo's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Geo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Geo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Geo Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Geo's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Geo.
Geo Implied Volatility | 0.76 |
Geo's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Geo Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Geo's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Geo stock will not fluctuate a lot when Geo's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Geo to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Geo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Geo after-hype prediction price | USD 16.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Geo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Geo Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0475% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Geo trading at USD 16.11, that is roughly USD 0.007652 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Geo's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Geo Group options at the current volatility level of 0.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Geo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Geo's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Geo After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Geo at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Geo or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Geo, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Geo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Geo's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Geo's historical news coverage. Geo's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.81 and 18.65, respectively. We have considered Geo's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Geo is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Geo Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Geo Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Geo is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Geo backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Geo, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 2.42 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.11 | 16.23 | 0.12 |
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Geo Hype Timeline
On the 10th of February Geo Group is traded for 16.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Geo is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Geo is about 504.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.18. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.42 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 31.97 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 645.64 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Geo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Geo Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Geo's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Geo's future price movements. Getting to know how Geo's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Geo may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NL | NL Industries | 0.17 | 5 per month | 2.28 | 0.03 | 5.51 | (4.21) | 20.34 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | 0.06 | 12 per month | 1.41 | 0.18 | 4.20 | (2.50) | 27.65 | |
| REZI | Resideo Technologies | 1.89 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.79 | (4.26) | 23.75 | |
| BRC | Brady | 0.57 | 11 per month | 0.88 | 0.20 | 2.35 | (1.68) | 5.12 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | (1.24) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.13 | 3.11 | (2.28) | 10.50 | |
| ALLE | Allegion PLC | 0.1 | 8 per month | 0.92 | 0.02 | 2.34 | (1.94) | 5.10 | |
| CIX | CompX International | (0.15) | 8 per month | 2.09 | 0.04 | 3.22 | (4.00) | 19.01 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | 2.25 | 10 per month | 0.86 | 0.17 | 3.11 | (1.81) | 6.97 | |
| EVLVW | Evolv Technologies Holdings | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 23.08 | (21.43) | 52.99 | |
| NSSC | NAPCO Security Technologies | 2.14 | 9 per month | 2.28 | 0 | 5.47 | (3.71) | 14.26 | |
| LDDFF | Liberty Defense Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.00 | (10.00) | 21.76 | |
| GFAI | Guardforce AI Co | (0.05) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 10.94 | (9.23) | 26.91 |
Geo Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Geo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Geo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Geo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Geo Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Geo stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Geo Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Geo based on analysis of Geo hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Geo's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Geo's related companies. | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0294 | 0.0279 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.74 | 1.19 |
Pair Trading with Geo
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Geo position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Geo will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Geo Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Geo could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Geo when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Geo - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Geo Group to buy it.
The correlation of Geo is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Geo moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Geo Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Geo can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Geo Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Will Commercial Services & Supplies sector continue expanding? Could Geo diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Geo. Market participants price Geo higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Geo data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.526 | Earnings Share 1.69 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.131 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Geo Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Geo's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Geo's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Geo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Geo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Geo's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.