Urban Outfitters Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| UOF Stock | EUR 60.62 0.08 0.13% |
Urban Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Urban Outfitters' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the value of rsi of Urban Outfitters' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.164 | Wall Street Target Price 43.6 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.123 |
Using Urban Outfitters hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Urban Outfitters from the perspective of Urban Outfitters response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 63.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 322.13. Urban Outfitters after-hype prediction price | EUR 58.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Urban |
Urban Outfitters Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Urban price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Urban using various technical indicators. When you analyze Urban charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Urban Outfitters Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 63.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.20, mean absolute percentage error of 30.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 322.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Urban Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Urban Outfitters' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Urban Outfitters Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Urban Outfitters | Urban Outfitters Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Urban Outfitters Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Urban Outfitters' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Urban Outfitters' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.09 and 68.65, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Urban Outfitters stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Urban Outfitters stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.3773 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.1956 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0855 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 322.1302 |
Predictive Modules for Urban Outfitters
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urban Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Urban Outfitters After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Urban Outfitters at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Urban Outfitters or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Urban Outfitters, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Urban Outfitters Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Urban Outfitters' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Urban Outfitters' historical news coverage. Urban Outfitters' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.26 and 62.82, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Urban Outfitters is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Urban Outfitters is based on 3 months time horizon.
Urban Outfitters Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Urban Outfitters is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Urban Outfitters backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Urban Outfitters, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 4.78 | 2.58 | 0.03 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
60.62 | 58.04 | 4.26 |
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Urban Outfitters Hype Timeline
Urban Outfitters is at this time traded for 60.62on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.58, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Urban is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 58.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 57.45%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -4.26%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Urban Outfitters is about 5865.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 60.59. About 28.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Urban Outfitters was at this time reported as 25.51. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3. Urban Outfitters had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2005. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters to cross-verify your projections.Urban Outfitters Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Urban Outfitters' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Urban Outfitters' future price movements. Getting to know how Urban Outfitters' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Urban Outfitters may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 5NU | CapitaLand Investment Limited | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.93 | 0.12 | 2.20 | (1.71) | 7.51 | |
| SHS | Shenzhen Investment Limited | 0 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 5.68 | (7.37) | 20.20 | |
| 4VGA | REGAL ASIAN INVESTMENTS | (0.01) | 6 per month | 1.55 | 0.19 | 4.76 | (2.99) | 11.26 | |
| 54M | Motorcar Parts of | (0.30) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.81 | (4.35) | 24.35 | |
| 9B7 | AOYAMA TRADING | (0.1) | 4 per month | 0.84 | 0.07 | 1.57 | (1.56) | 6.22 | |
| VIP | Virtus Investment Partners | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.01 | (2.95) | 9.31 |
Other Forecasting Options for Urban Outfitters
For every potential investor in Urban, whether a beginner or expert, Urban Outfitters' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Urban Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Urban. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Urban Outfitters' price trends.Urban Outfitters Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Urban Outfitters stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Urban Outfitters could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Urban Outfitters by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Urban Outfitters Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Urban Outfitters stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Urban Outfitters shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Urban Outfitters stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Urban Outfitters entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 60.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 60.62 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators
The analysis of Urban Outfitters' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Urban Outfitters' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting urban stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.62 | |||
| Variance | 21.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Urban Outfitters
The number of cover stories for Urban Outfitters depends on current market conditions and Urban Outfitters' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Urban Outfitters is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Urban Outfitters' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Urban Outfitters Short Properties
Urban Outfitters' future price predictability will typically decrease when Urban Outfitters' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Urban Outfitters often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Urban Outfitters' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Urban Outfitters' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.3 M | |
| Shares Float | 65.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Urban Stock please use our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.