Urban Outfitters Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UOF Stock | EUR 52.98 -1.46 -2.68% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Urban Outfitters. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 52.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.52.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Urban Outfitters forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Urban Outfitters observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Urban Outfitters is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 52.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.51 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Urban Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Urban Outfitters' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Urban Outfitters | Urban Outfitters Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Urban Outfitters' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Urban Outfitters stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Urban Outfitters stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1936 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.196 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.092 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0186 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Urban Outfitters
Urban Outfitters' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Urban often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Urban Stock data examines overnight jumps between Urban Outfitters' closing and opening prices.Urban Outfitters Related Equities
These stocks are related to Urban Outfitters within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Urban Outfitters' peer group. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Urban Outfitters Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Urban Outfitters stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Urban Outfitters. These indicators can identify periods when trading Urban Outfitters may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.73 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.46 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.41 |
Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators
The analysis of Urban Outfitters' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Urban Outfitters' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of Urban Outfitters' basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Variance | 6.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Urban Outfitters
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Urban Outfitters can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Urban Outfitters Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Urban Outfitters matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 92.3 M | |
| Shares Float | 64.6 M |
More Resources for Urban Stock Analysis
A full view of Urban Outfitters is built from its financial statements and trend data. The following reports provide structured context for Urban Outfitters Stock:Cross-verify projections for Urban Outfitters using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters. For information on how to trade Urban Stock refer to our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide. It explains the process for buying and trading Urban Stock effectively.Urban Outfitters P/E of 7.14 alongside ROE at 17.59% frames the starting point - the resources below add portfolio-level context that single-security analysis cannot provide alone. Within the Consumer Cyclical space, these metrics give the peer comparison tools below a concrete starting point for relative analysis. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.