Urban Outfitters Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| UOF Stock | EUR 56.16 2.34 4.00% |
Urban Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Urban Outfitters' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 28th of January 2026, the value of RSI of Urban Outfitters' share price is approaching 41. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Urban Outfitters, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Urban Outfitters hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Urban Outfitters from the perspective of Urban Outfitters response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 56.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.21. Urban Outfitters after-hype prediction price | EUR 56.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Urban |
Urban Outfitters Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Urban price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Urban using various technical indicators. When you analyze Urban charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Urban Outfitters Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Urban Outfitters on the next trading day is expected to be 56.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 8.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Urban Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Urban Outfitters' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Urban Outfitters Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Urban Outfitters | Urban Outfitters Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Urban Outfitters Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Urban Outfitters' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Urban Outfitters' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.30 and 61.02, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Urban Outfitters stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Urban Outfitters stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.5508 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0371 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8002 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0291 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 106.21 |
Predictive Modules for Urban Outfitters
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Urban Outfitters. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Urban Outfitters After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Urban Outfitters at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Urban Outfitters or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Urban Outfitters, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Urban Outfitters Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Urban Outfitters' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Urban Outfitters' historical news coverage. Urban Outfitters' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.29 and 61.03, respectively. We have considered Urban Outfitters' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Urban Outfitters is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Urban Outfitters is based on 3 months time horizon.
Urban Outfitters Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Urban Outfitters is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Urban Outfitters backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Urban Outfitters, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 4.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
56.16 | 56.16 | 0.00 |
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Urban Outfitters Hype Timeline
Urban Outfitters is at this time traded for 56.16on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Urban is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Urban Outfitters is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 56.16. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.43. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Urban Outfitters had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2005. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters to cross-verify your projections.Urban Outfitters Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Urban Outfitters' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Urban Outfitters' future price movements. Getting to know how Urban Outfitters' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Urban Outfitters may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 22E | TRI CHEMICAL LABORATINC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.99 | 0.03 | 5.45 | (5.13) | 28.71 | |
| H1Q | China BlueChemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.62 | 0.03 | 8.00 | (7.14) | 21.88 | |
| UEO | WESTLAKE CHEMICAL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.96 | 0.03 | 5.52 | (3.38) | 10.46 | |
| QBI | Q2M Managementberatung AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 | |
| 0XI | Xiabuxiabu Catering Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.76 | (4.11) | 9.92 | |
| LA5 | SILICON LABORATOR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.38 | (0.01) | 4.59 | (4.55) | 18.94 | |
| EAC | Eastman Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.72 | 0.04 | 3.38 | (2.75) | 9.55 | |
| S9M | Silicon Motion Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | 0.06 | 4.55 | (4.32) | 31.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Urban Outfitters
For every potential investor in Urban, whether a beginner or expert, Urban Outfitters' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Urban Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Urban. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Urban Outfitters' price trends.Urban Outfitters Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Urban Outfitters stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Urban Outfitters could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Urban Outfitters by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Urban Outfitters Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Urban Outfitters stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Urban Outfitters shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Urban Outfitters stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Urban Outfitters entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 56.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 56.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.17) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.34) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.49 |
Urban Outfitters Risk Indicators
The analysis of Urban Outfitters' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Urban Outfitters' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting urban stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.6 | |||
| Variance | 21.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Urban Outfitters
The number of cover stories for Urban Outfitters depends on current market conditions and Urban Outfitters' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Urban Outfitters is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Urban Outfitters' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Urban Stock
When determining whether Urban Outfitters offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Urban Outfitters' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Urban Outfitters Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Urban Outfitters Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Urban Outfitters to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Urban Stock please use our How to Invest in Urban Outfitters guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.