Tompkins Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TMP Stock | USD 75.10 -2.32 -3.00% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
The summary frames Tompkins Financial's price response to attention shifts and peer coverage.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 75.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.22.Tompkins Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 75.1 |
This analysis adds an attention layer to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tompkins Financial can be used to cross-verify projections for Tompkins Financial. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Tompkins Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tompkins price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tompkins using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tompkins charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tompkins Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 75.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.24 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 66.22 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tompkins Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tompkins Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tompkins Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tompkins Financial | Tompkins Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Tompkins Financial Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Tompkins Financial uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tompkins Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tompkins Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0809 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.052 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1037 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0143 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 66.22 |
While mean reversion in Tompkins Financial's is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
Tompkins Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from Tompkins Financial's price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Tompkins Financial's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tompkins Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of Tompkins Financial reveals distinct patterns in how Tompkins Financial's price responds to different categories of news. Tompkins Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 73.17 and 77.03, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Tompkins Financial has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Tompkins Financial assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Tompkins Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tompkins Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tompkins Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tompkins Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 1 Events | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
75.10 | 75.10 | 0.00 |
|
Tompkins Financial Hype Timeline
On the 9th of March Tompkins Financial is traded for 75.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Tompkins is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Tompkins Financial is about 38600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 75.10. About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.15. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tompkins Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.61. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.24. The firm last dividend was issued on the 13th of February 2026. Tompkins Financial completed a 11:10 stock split on 3rd of February 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tompkins Financial can be used to cross-verify projections for Tompkins Financial. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Tompkins Financial Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of Tompkins Financial's direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Tompkins Financial's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.27 | 0.01 | 3.02 | -3.21 | 10.07 | |
| OSBC | Old Second Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | -0.0038 | 2.78 | -2.43 | 11.79 | |
| BHRB | Burke Herbert Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 2.35 | -3.63 | 8.30 | |
| TCBI | Texas Capital Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 2.92 | -3.45 | 12.27 | |
| PEBO | Peoples Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.07 | 2.18 | -1.84 | 8.67 | |
| FMBH | First Mid Illinois | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.01 | 2.73 | -2.59 | 9.85 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.0048 | 2.73 | -2.11 | 9.35 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 0.05 | 9 per month | 1.99 | 0.13 | 4.14 | -3.82 | 20.34 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 3.27 | -2.05 | 18.20 | |
| UVSP | Univest Pennsylvania | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | -0.0033 | 3.18 | -2.11 | 9.94 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tompkins Financial
Any investor evaluating Tompkins must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Tompkins Financial's price movement accurately. Tompkins Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Tompkins Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tompkins Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tompkins Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tompkins Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tompkins Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Tompkins Financial assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Tompkins Financial.
Tompkins Financial Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Tompkins Financial's is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Tompkins Financial's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.69 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tompkins Financial
Coverage intensity for Tompkins Financial matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Tompkins Financial Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Tompkins Financial matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
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