Tompkins Financial Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| TMP Stock | USD 77.22 0.04 0.05% |
This page provides Simple Moving Average reference data for Tompkins Financial, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Tompkins Financial's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 77.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.52.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Tompkins Financial price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Tompkins Financial. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average reference information for Tompkins Financial is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Tompkins Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 77.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.53 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tompkins Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tompkins Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tompkins Financial | Tompkins Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Tompkins Financial uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 75.35 and upside around 79.05 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tompkins Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tompkins Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3636 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.132 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1783 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tompkins Financial
The autocorrelation structure of Tompkins Financial's daily returns reveals whether Tompkins exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Tompkins Stock price data.Tompkins Financial Related Equities
Investors studying Tompkins Financial often look at related stocks within the Financials space to gauge pricing and results. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tompkins Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Tompkins Financial stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Tompkins Financial.
Tompkins Financial Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Tompkins Financial is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tompkins Financial's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.52 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tompkins Financial
Story coverage around Tompkins Financial often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Tompkins Financial Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Tompkins Financial is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Additional Tools for Tompkins Stock Analysis
| Bonds Directory Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years |