Tiptree Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| TIPT Stock | USD 15.73 -0.03 -0.19% |
This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Tiptree presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tiptree on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18.When Tiptree prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Tiptree trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Tiptree observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Tiptree are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tiptree on the next trading day is expected to be 15.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tiptree Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tiptree's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tiptree | Tiptree Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Tiptree focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 14.30 and upside near 17.11.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tiptree stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tiptree stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0183 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1725 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.1759 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tiptree
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Tiptree is a viable investment for any investor. Tiptree Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.Tiptree Related Equities
The following equities are related to Tiptree within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Tiptree against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tiptree Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of Tiptree stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Tiptree is most likely to be profitable.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5459.62 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.12 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.095 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.03 |
Tiptree Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tiptree's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Tiptree's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9946 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Variance | 1.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tiptree
Story coverage around Tiptree often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Tiptree Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Tiptree can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 52.5 M |
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