Swatch Group Pink Sheet Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SWGAY Stock | USD 11.01 -0.10 -0.90% |
Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
This view frames how Swatch Group AG responds to recent headlines and peer activity within its market context.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swatch Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.36.Swatch Group after-hype prediction price | USD 11.01 |
Sentiment indicators are one input among forecasting models, technical signals, analyst estimates, earnings data, and momentum measures.
Swatch |
Swatch Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Swatch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Swatch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Swatch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Swatch Group Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Swatch Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.36 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swatch Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swatch Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Swatch Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Swatch Group | Swatch Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Swatch Group Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Swatch Group AG uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swatch Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swatch Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0051 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1756 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.36 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swatch Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Swatch Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Swatch Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Swatch Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Swatch Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Swatch Group's historical news coverage.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Swatch Group AG assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Swatch Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Swatch Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Swatch Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Swatch Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events | 0 Events | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.01 | 11.01 | 0.00 |
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Swatch Group Hype Timeline
Swatch Group AG is at this time traded for 11.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Swatch is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Swatch Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.01. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.8. Swatch Group AG last dividend was issued on the 26th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Swatch Group to cross-verify projections for Swatch Group. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Swatch Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Swatch Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Swatch Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Swatch Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AONNF | Aeon Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PNDZF | Pandora AS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 42.97 | |
| VLVCY | Volvo Car AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 4.22 | -7.22 | 37.28 | |
| HLLGY | HELLA GmbH Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.12 | |
| CCLLF | CCL Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.82 | |
| SIEVF | DIeteren Group SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 | -0.58 | 31.79 | |
| HLKHF | HELLA GmbH Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 | |
| RNLSY | Renault SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 3.16 | -2.69 | 14.82 | |
| MAKSY | Marks Spencer Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | 0.05 | 2.16 | -3.11 | 9.00 | |
| VLVOF | Volvo Car AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 0.00 | -4.83 | 27.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Swatch Group
For every potential investor in Swatch, whether a beginner or expert, Swatch Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Swatch Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Swatch Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Swatch Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Swatch Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Swatch Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Swatch Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Swatch Group shares will generate the highest return on.
Swatch Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Swatch Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Swatch Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Variance | 5.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Swatch Group
Coverage intensity for Swatch Group AG matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.
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Swatch Group Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Swatch Group AG matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.7 B |
More Resources for Swatch Pink Sheet Analysis
Other Information on Investing in Swatch Pink Sheet
Swatch Group financial ratios help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Swatch to other measures in a consistent way.