Swatch Group Pink Sheet Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| SWGAY Stock | USD 10.64 -0.25 -2.30% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
This view maps Swatch Group AG attention shifts to recent price behavior and peer activity.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Swatch Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 9.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.82.Swatch Group after-hype prediction price | $ 10.64 |
The sentiment panel provides context that can be compared with forecasting models and technical indicators.
Swatch |
Swatch Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Swatch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Swatch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Swatch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Swatch Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 9.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Swatch Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Swatch Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Swatch Group | Swatch Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Swatch Group's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Swatch Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Swatch Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.447 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3741 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0332 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.8222 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swatch Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Swatch Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Swatch Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Swatch Group's historical news coverage.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for Swatch Group AG uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. Used correctly, the estimate adds context around potential normalization rather than promising a specific realized outcome.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Swatch Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Swatch Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Swatch Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.36 | 2.19 | 0.46 | 15 Events | 3 Events | In 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.64 | 10.64 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Swatch Group AG is at this time traded for 10.64. The company has historical hype elasticity of 2.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.46. Swatch is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 5.38%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Swatch Group is about 25.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.18. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.8. Swatch Group AG had its last dividend issued on the 26th of May 2022. Assuming a 90-day horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 15 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Swatch Group can be used to cross-verify projections for Swatch Group. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Swatch Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Swatch Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Swatch Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AONNF | Aeon Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PNDZF | Pandora AS | -53.72 | 2 per month | 0.00 | -0.10 | 3.83 | -4.42 | 42.98 | |
| VLVCY | Volvo Car AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 4.22 | -7.22 | 37.28 | |
| HLLGY | HELLA GmbH Co | 0.03 | 3 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.92 | |
| CCLLF | CCL Industries | 0.03 | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.82 | |
| SIEVF | DIeteren Group SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | -0.58 | 31.79 | |
| HLKHF | HELLA GmbH Co | -38.40 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 | |
| RNLSY | Renault SA | 0.03 | 15 per month | 0.00 | -0.17 | 2.37 | -2.69 | 14.20 | |
| MAKSY | Marks Spencer Group | 0.03 | 12 per month | 1.54 | 0.10 | 2.16 | -2.40 | 9.00 | |
| VLVOF | Volvo Car AB | 0.03 | 14 per month | 0.00 | -0.16 | 0.00 | -4.83 | 27.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Swatch Group
For every potential investor in Swatch, whether a beginner or expert, Swatch Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.Swatch Group Related Equities
The following equities are related to Swatch Group within the Luxury Goods space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Swatch Group against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Swatch Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Swatch Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Swatch Group shares will generate the highest return on.
Swatch Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Swatch Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Swatch Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.60 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Swatch Group
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Swatch Group AG can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Swatch Group Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Swatch Group AG matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.7 B |
More Resources for Swatch Pink Sheet Analysis
Other Information on Investing in Swatch Pink Sheet
Swatch Group financial ratios help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare Swatch across measures in a consistent way.