Super Micro Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SMCI Stock | USD 24.05 1.82 8.19% |
Super Micro Computer's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for Super Micro. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for Super Micro.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Super Micro Computer on the next trading day is projected to be 23.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.88.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Super Micro Computer forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Super Micro observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Super Micro Computer are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Super Micro Computer on the next trading day is expected to be 23.95 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.21 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 62.88 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Super Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Super Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Super Micro | Super Micro Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Super Micro's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 17.86 and upside around 30.04 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Super Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Super Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.277 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.143 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0309 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0363 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 62.8834 |
Other Forecasting Options for Super Micro
Bollinger Bands applied to Super Stock price data measure how far Super has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Super Micro's price data. On-balance volume for Super Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Super. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Super Micro's.Super Micro Related Equities
Checking Super Micro against related firms within the Information Technology space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Super Micro's results. When Super Micro breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Super Micro Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Super Micro Computer, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Super Micro Computer positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Super Micro. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Super Micro Computer.
Super Micro Risk Indicators
Analyzing Super Micro's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for super stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Super Micro's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing Super Micro's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in Super Micro's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.9 | |||
| Variance | 34.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Super Micro
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Super Micro Computer can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Super Micro Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Super Micro Computer matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 628.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.2 B |