Silicon Motion Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| SIMO Stock | USD 123.64 0.86 0.70% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.187 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.9775 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.6573 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.895 | Wall Street Target Price 157.2 |
The summary frames Silicon Motion's price response to attention shifts and peer coverage. This section summarizes Silicon Motion's options flow and short interest as sentiment inputs.
Short Interest Metrics for Silicon Motion
Short interest data for Silicon Motion is reported twice a month, providing a lagged but useful view of aggregate bearish positioning in Silicon shares.
200 Day MA 91.6669 | Short Percent 0.0203 | Short Ratio 0.86 | Shares Short Prior Month 667.8 K | 50 Day MA 119.5634 |
RSI Signal: Silicon
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 123.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 185.16.Hype-to-Price Context for Silicon Motion Technology
Investor sentiment toward Silicon reflects the aggregated optimism or pessimism of all market participants. Extremes in Silicon Motion's sentiment have historically preceded significant reversals in price direction.
Overvalued stocks supported by excessive positive sentiment are vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality disappoints. Silicon Motion's sentiment score helps gauge how much of its current price is justified by optimism alone.
Silicon Motion Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
Silicon Motion's implied volatility is a key input in option pricing models such as Black-Scholes. It is the only forward-looking variable in these models, making it the primary driver of option premium changes not explained by price moves in Silicon Motion's stock.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 123.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 185.16.Silicon Motion after-hype prediction price | $ 123.64 |
This analysis adds an attention layer to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silicon Motion can be used to cross-verify projections for Silicon Motion. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Rule 16 Overview for current Silicon contract - Performance Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.0469% across the 2026-06-18 option cycle. This context is informational: with Silicon Motion near $ 123.64, the daily move estimate is $ 0.058 .
Open Interest - Silicon Options (2026-06-18)
Open interest for Silicon Motion options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.
Silicon Motion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Silicon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Silicon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Silicon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Silicon Motion Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 123.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 22.55 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 185.16 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Silicon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Silicon Motion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Silicon Motion Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Silicon Motion | Silicon Motion Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Silicon Motion Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Silicon Motion Technology uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Silicon Motion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Silicon Motion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3883 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8605 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.086 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0262 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 185.16 |
While mean reversion in Silicon Motion is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
Silicon Motion After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from Silicon Motion's price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Silicon Motion's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Silicon Motion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of Silicon Motion reveals distinct patterns in how Silicon Motion's price responds to different categories of news. Silicon Motion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 119.67 and 127.61, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Silicon Motion has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Silicon Motion Technology assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Silicon Motion Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Silicon Motion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Silicon Motion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Silicon Motion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.65 | 3.91 | 1.72 | 0.19 | 12 Events | 8 Events | In 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
123.64 | 123.64 | 0.00 |
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Silicon Motion Hype Timeline
Silicon Motion Technology is at this time traded for 123.64. The company has historical hype elasticity of -1.72, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Silicon is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 147.55%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.65%. %. The volatility of related hype on Silicon Motion is about 1320.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 123.45. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Silicon Motion was at this time reported as 24.75. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7. Silicon Motion Technology last dividend was issued on the 7th of May 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 12 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silicon Motion can be used to cross-verify projections for Silicon Motion. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Silicon Motion Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of Silicon Motion's direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Silicon Motion's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | 5.00 | 10 per month | 3.34 | 0.13 | 5.43 | -5.97 | 47.86 | |
| DIOD | Diodes Incorporated | -6.04 | 11 per month | 2.41 | 0.1 | 4.79 | -3.93 | 34.01 | |
| ACMR | Acm Research | -5.37 | 8 per month | 4.66 | 0.12 | 8.19 | -7.72 | 31.57 | |
| AMBA | Ambarella | -0.43 | 15 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 6.08 | -5.47 | 21.94 | |
| ACLS | Axcelis Technologies | 2.73 | 10 per month | 3.94 | 0.01 | 5.46 | -5.00 | 23.94 | |
| SPSC | SPS Commerce | -0.61 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 3.02 | -5.53 | 11.26 | |
| DAVE | Dave Inc | 7.61 | 9 per month | 4.24 | 0.04 | 6.01 | -6.19 | 26.09 | |
| SYNA | Synaptics Incorporated | -0.66 | 10 per month | 2.56 | 0.02 | 5.55 | -4.56 | 15.72 | |
| BL | Blackline | 0.18 | 2 per month | 0.00 | -0.22 | 2.73 | -7.06 | 15.09 | |
| NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | -5.37 | 14 per month | 5.17 | 0.06 | 17.37 | -9.39 | 28.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Silicon Motion
Any investor evaluating Silicon must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Silicon Motion's price movement accurately. Silicon Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Silicon Motion Related Equities
The following equities are related to Silicon Motion within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Silicon Motion against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Silicon Motion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Silicon Motion assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Silicon Motion Technology.
| Accumulation Distribution | 15228.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1525 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 124.43 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 124.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.36 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.86 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.69 |
Silicon Motion Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Silicon Motion is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Silicon Motion's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.84 | |||
| Variance | 14.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Silicon Motion
Coverage intensity for Silicon Motion Technology matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Silicon Motion Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Silicon Motion Technology matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 201.8 M |
More Resources for Silicon Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Silicon Motion Technology starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratio context helps frame profitability, efficiency, and growth trends for Silicon Motion Technology Stock. Selected reports below provide context for Silicon Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Silicon Motion can be used to cross-verify projections for Silicon Motion. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. Analysis related to Silicon Motion should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.187 | Dividend Share 2 | Earnings Share 3.64 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.457 |
Silicon Motion Technology market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Silicon balance sheet. Silicon Motion's market capitalization is 4.17 B. With a P/B ratio of 4.98, the market values Silicon Motion well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 3.86 B. Intrinsic value is an estimate of underlying worth, separate from trading price and book value. The valuation process compares these measures for perspective.
It is useful to distinguish Silicon Motion's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Silicon Motion, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 27.14, a P/B ratio of 4.98, a profit margin of 13.85%, and ROE of 15.3%. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.