Silicon Motion Technology Stock Price Prediction
| SIMO Stock | USD 116.17 0.93 0.79% |
Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.875 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.259 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.5871 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.8708 | Wall Street Target Price 119.0909 |
Using Silicon Motion hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Silicon Motion Technology from the perspective of Silicon Motion response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Silicon Motion using Silicon Motion's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Silicon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Silicon Motion's stock price.
Silicon Motion Short Interest
An investor who is long Silicon Motion may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Silicon Motion and may potentially protect profits, hedge Silicon Motion with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 79.936 | Short Percent 0.0201 | Short Ratio 2.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 662.7 K | 50 Day MA 95.628 |
Silicon Motion Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Silicon Motion's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Silicon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Silicon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Silicon Motion Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Silicon Motion's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Silicon Motion.
Silicon Motion Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
Silicon Motion's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Silicon Motion Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Silicon Motion's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Silicon Motion stock will not fluctuate a lot when Silicon Motion's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Silicon Motion to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Silicon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Silicon Motion after-hype prediction price | USD 114.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Silicon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Silicon Motion Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Silicon Motion trading at USD 116.17, that is roughly USD 0.0632 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Silicon Motion's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Silicon Motion Technology options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Silicon Motion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Silicon Motion After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Silicon Motion at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Silicon Motion or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Silicon Motion, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Silicon Motion Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Silicon Motion's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Silicon Motion's historical news coverage. Silicon Motion's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 111.11 and 118.27, respectively. We have considered Silicon Motion's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Silicon Motion is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Silicon Motion Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Silicon Motion Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Silicon Motion is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Silicon Motion backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Silicon Motion, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 3.59 | 2.34 | 0.05 | 12 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
116.17 | 114.69 | 2.06 |
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Silicon Motion Hype Timeline
Silicon Motion Technology is at this time traded for 116.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.34, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Silicon is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 114.69. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 53.66%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.06%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.35%. The volatility of related hype on Silicon Motion is about 2346.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 116.22. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Silicon Motion was at this time reported as 24.85. The company last dividend was issued on the 11th of February 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Silicon Motion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Silicon Motion Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Silicon Motion's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Silicon Motion's future price movements. Getting to know how Silicon Motion's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Silicon Motion may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | (0.30) | 10 per month | 2.39 | 0.02 | 3.62 | (4.00) | 12.41 | |
| DIOD | Diodes Incorporated | (0.06) | 11 per month | 2.84 | 0.01 | 5.26 | (3.16) | 17.49 | |
| ACMR | Acm Research | 1.51 | 13 per month | 4.26 | 0.12 | 6.59 | (4.62) | 24.17 | |
| AMBA | Ambarella | 0.15 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.30 | (4.88) | 24.30 | |
| ACLS | Axcelis Technologies | 0.84 | 13 per month | 2.58 | 0.03 | 5.46 | (4.04) | 12.52 | |
| SPSC | SPS Commerce | (1.22) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.21 | (3.12) | 20.84 | |
| DAVE | Dave Inc | 1.42 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.29 | (8.15) | 19.16 | |
| SYNA | Synaptics Incorporated | (1.19) | 17 per month | 2.31 | 0.09 | 7.07 | (3.88) | 15.42 | |
| BL | Blackline | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.73 | (3.41) | 9.51 | |
| NVTS | Navitas Semiconductor Corp | 0.27 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.60 | (9.92) | 32.37 |
Silicon Motion Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Silicon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Silicon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Silicon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Silicon Motion Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Silicon Motion stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Silicon Motion Technology, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Silicon Motion based on analysis of Silicon Motion hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Silicon Motion's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Silicon Motion's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.037 | 0.0333 | 0.0186 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.26 | 2.6 | 4.13 |
Pair Trading with Silicon Motion
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Silicon Motion position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Silicon Motion will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Silicon Stock
| 0.72 | TXN | Texas Instruments Tech Boost | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | INTC | Intel | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | KLAC | KLA Tencor Tech Boost | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | 688498 | Yuanjie Semiconductor | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | LRCX | Lam Research Corp Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
Moving against Silicon Stock
| 0.47 | IMBBY | Imperial Brands PLC | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | MMSI | Merit Medical Systems | PairCorr |
| 0.31 | SLMNP | A Schulman | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Silicon Motion could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Silicon Motion when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Silicon Motion - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Silicon Motion Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Silicon Motion is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Silicon Motion moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Silicon Motion Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Silicon Motion can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Silicon Motion Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Will Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Silicon diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Silicon Motion. If investors know Silicon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Silicon Motion data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.875 | Earnings Share 2.86 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.139 | Return On Assets |
Silicon Motion Technology's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Silicon's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Silicon Motion's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since Silicon Motion's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Silicon Motion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Silicon Motion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Silicon Motion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.