Stitch Fix Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SFIX Stock | USD 5.23 0.15 2.95% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stitch Fix on the next trading day is expected to be 5.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.43. Stitch Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Stitch Fix's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.19) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.02) | Wall Street Target Price 5.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.04) |
Using Stitch Fix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Stitch Fix from the perspective of Stitch Fix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Stitch Fix using Stitch Fix's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Stitch using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Stitch Fix's stock price.
Stitch Fix Short Interest
An investor who is long Stitch Fix may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Stitch Fix and may potentially protect profits, hedge Stitch Fix with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 4.4894 | Short Percent 0.1109 | Short Ratio 4.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.6 M | 50 Day MA 4.8679 |
Stitch Fix Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Stitch Fix's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Stitch. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Stitch can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Stitch Fix. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Stitch Fix Implied Volatility | 1.27 |
Stitch Fix's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Stitch Fix stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Stitch Fix's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Stitch Fix stock will not fluctuate a lot when Stitch Fix's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stitch Fix on the next trading day is expected to be 5.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.43. Stitch Fix after-hype prediction price | USD 5.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stitch Fix to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Stitch Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Stitch Fix's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Stitch Fix's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Stitch Fix stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Stitch Fix's open interest, investors have to compare it to Stitch Fix's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Stitch Fix is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Stitch. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Stitch Fix Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Stitch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Stitch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Stitch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Stitch Fix's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-07-31 | Previous Quarter 114 M | Current Value 114.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 55.3 M |
Stitch Fix Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Stitch Fix on the next trading day is expected to be 5.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Stitch Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Stitch Fix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stitch Fix Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Stitch Fix | Stitch Fix Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Stitch Fix Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Stitch Fix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Stitch Fix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.06 and 9.08, respectively. We have considered Stitch Fix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Stitch Fix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Stitch Fix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9612 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1709 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0359 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.4258 |
Predictive Modules for Stitch Fix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stitch Fix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Stitch Fix After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Stitch Fix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Stitch Fix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Stitch Fix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Stitch Fix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Stitch Fix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Stitch Fix's historical news coverage. Stitch Fix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.78 and 8.80, respectively. We have considered Stitch Fix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Stitch Fix is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Stitch Fix is based on 3 months time horizon.
Stitch Fix Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Stitch Fix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Stitch Fix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Stitch Fix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 3.51 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 3 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.23 | 5.29 | 1.15 |
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Stitch Fix Hype Timeline
Stitch Fix is at this time traded for 5.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Stitch is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.15%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Stitch Fix is about 1387.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.30. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.27 B. Net Loss for the year was (28.84 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 567.46 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Stitch Fix to cross-verify your projections.Stitch Fix Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Stitch Fix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Stitch Fix's future price movements. Getting to know how Stitch Fix's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Stitch Fix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HZO | MarineMax | 0.23 | 19 per month | 2.83 | 0.04 | 6.76 | (4.50) | 16.01 | |
| SCVL | Shoe Carnival | 0.72 | 10 per month | 2.96 | (0.03) | 4.98 | (4.71) | 11.78 | |
| OXM | Oxford Industries | 1.58 | 10 per month | 5.11 | 0.01 | 6.99 | (5.59) | 30.64 | |
| YSG | Yatsen Holding | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.79 | (7.99) | 38.70 | |
| ZKH | ZKH Group Limited | 0.05 | 6 per month | 2.71 | 0.07 | 6.38 | (3.63) | 25.66 | |
| UXIN | Uxin | 0.21 | 8 per month | 4.85 | 0.07 | 10.40 | (8.90) | 28.17 | |
| BWMX | Betterware de Mxico | 0.23 | 12 per month | 1.20 | 0.20 | 3.90 | (2.22) | 13.62 | |
| JMIA | Jumia Technologies AG | (0.50) | 8 per month | 3.68 | 0.06 | 6.29 | (5.98) | 16.35 | |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands | (0.14) | 9 per month | 3.51 | 0 | 5.22 | (5.11) | 16.41 | |
| CTRN | Citi Trends | 0.23 | 9 per month | 2.53 | 0.08 | 4.68 | (4.27) | 12.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Stitch Fix
For every potential investor in Stitch, whether a beginner or expert, Stitch Fix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Stitch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Stitch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Stitch Fix's price trends.Stitch Fix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Stitch Fix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Stitch Fix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Stitch Fix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Stitch Fix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Stitch Fix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Stitch Fix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Stitch Fix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Stitch Fix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Stitch Fix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Stitch Fix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Stitch Fix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stitch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Variance | 11.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.0 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.69) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Stitch Fix
The number of cover stories for Stitch Fix depends on current market conditions and Stitch Fix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Stitch Fix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Stitch Fix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Stitch Fix Short Properties
Stitch Fix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Stitch Fix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Stitch Fix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Stitch Fix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stitch Fix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 128.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 234.9 M |
Additional Tools for Stitch Stock Analysis
When running Stitch Fix's price analysis, check to measure Stitch Fix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Stitch Fix is operating at the current time. Most of Stitch Fix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Stitch Fix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Stitch Fix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Stitch Fix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.