Philip Morris Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| PM Stock | USD 166.84 -6.03 -3.49% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.131 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.8885 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.4381 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.1988 | Wall Street Target Price 194.8438 |
The summary frames Philip Morris' price response to attention shifts and peer coverage. This section summarizes Philip Morris' options flow and short interest as sentiment inputs.
Short Interest Metrics for Philip Morris
Short interest data for Philip Morris is reported twice a month, providing a lagged but useful view of aggregate bearish positioning in Philip shares.
200 Day MA 167.4852 | Short Percent 0.0109 | Short Ratio 3.02 | Shares Short Prior Month 19.8 M | 50 Day MA 174.8534 |
RSI Signal: Philip
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 166.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.51.Hype-to-Price Context for Philip Morris
Investor sentiment toward Philip reflects the aggregated optimism or pessimism of all market participants. Extremes in Philip Morris' sentiment have historically preceded significant reversals in price direction.
Overvalued stocks supported by excessive positive sentiment are vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality disappoints. Philip Morris' sentiment score helps gauge how much of its current price is justified by optimism alone.
Philip Morris Implied Volatility | 0.46 |
Philip Morris' implied volatility is a key input in option pricing models such as Black-Scholes. It is the only forward-looking variable in these models, making it the primary driver of option premium changes not explained by price moves in Philip Morris's stock.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 166.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.51.Philip Morris after-hype prediction price | $ 167.03 |
This analysis adds an attention layer to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris can be used to cross-verify projections for Philip Morris. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Rule 16 Overview for current Philip contract - Performance Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.0288% across the 2026-06-18 option cycle. This context is informational: with Philip Morris near $ 166.84, the daily move estimate is $ 0.048 .
Open Interest - Philip Options (2026-06-18)
Open interest for Philip Morris options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.
Philip Morris Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Philip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Philip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Philip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Philip Morris Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 166.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.23 , mean absolute percentage error of 8.36 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.51 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Philip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Philip Morris' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Philip Morris Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Philip Morris | Philip Morris Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Philip Morris Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Philip Morris International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Philip Morris stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Philip Morris stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5723 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2291 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 131.5146 |
While mean reversion in Philip Morris is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
Philip Morris After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from Philip Morris' price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Philip Morris's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Philip Morris Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of Philip Morris reveals distinct patterns in how Philip Morris' price responds to different categories of news. Philip Morris' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 165.41 and 168.65, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Philip Morris has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Philip Morris International assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Philip Morris Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Philip Morris is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Philip Morris backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Philip Morris, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.63 | 0.54 | 0.10 | 8 Events | 6 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
166.84 | 167.03 | 0.32 |
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Philip Morris Hype Timeline
As of March 11, 2026 Philip Morris is listed for 166.84. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.54, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Philip is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 167.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 60.82%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.32%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Philip Morris is about 338.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 166.74. About 83.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.98. Philip Morris recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.26. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of March 2026. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 8 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris can be used to cross-verify projections for Philip Morris. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Philip Morris Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of Philip Morris' direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Philip Morris's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PEP | PepsiCo | -1.44 | 5 per month | 0.96 | 0.12 | 2.05 | -1.96 | 7.35 | |
| BTI | British American Tobacco | 0.15 | 10 per month | 1.51 | 0.06 | 2.47 | -2.63 | 7.57 | |
| MO | Altria Group | 0.46 | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.18 | 2.75 | -1.67 | 8.25 | |
| KO | The Coca Cola | -0.52 | 9 per month | 0.76 | 0.15 | 2.04 | -1.56 | 4.35 | |
| UL | Unilever PLC ADR | -0.67 | 10 per month | 1.99 | 0.01 | 1.93 | -2.88 | 7.65 | |
| BUD | Anheuser Busch Inbev | 0.14 | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.20 | 2.09 | -2.49 | 6.57 | |
| PG | Procter Gamble | -1.14 | 8 per month | 1.25 | 0.09 | 2.11 | -2.21 | 5.45 | |
| UVV | Universal | -0.59 | 9 per month | 1.99 | 0.01 | 1.51 | -1.45 | 12.90 | |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands | -1.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 3.95 | -4.58 | 27.69 | |
| RLX | RLX Technology | -0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.0025 | 2.63 | -3.42 | 7.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for Philip Morris
Any investor evaluating Philip must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Philip Morris' price movement accurately. Philip Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Philip Morris Related Equities
The following equities are related to Philip Morris within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Philip Morris against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Philip Morris Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Philip Morris assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Philip Morris International.
| Accumulation Distribution | 292725.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.88 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 168.69 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 168.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -4.86 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -6.03 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.11 |
Philip Morris Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Philip Morris is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Philip Morris' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Variance | 2.38 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Philip Morris
Coverage intensity for Philip Morris International matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Philip Morris Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Philip Morris International matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |
More Resources for Philip Stock Analysis
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Philip Morris can be used to cross-verify projections for Philip Morris. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. Analysis related to Philip Morris should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.131 | Dividend Share 5.64 | Earnings Share 7.26 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 |
Philip Morris market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on Philip balance sheet. Philip Morris' market capitalization is 269.1 B. Enterprise value stands at 313.07 B. Intrinsic value is an estimate of underlying worth, separate from trading price and book value. The valuation process compares these measures for perspective.
It is useful to distinguish Philip Morris' value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Philip Morris, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 17.73, a profit margin of 27.92%, and revenue of 40.6 B. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.