Philip Morris Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PM Stock | USD 172.89 0.06 0.03% |
This page documents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for Philip Morris International as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 172.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.82.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Philip Morris International forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Philip Morris observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Philip Morris is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Philip Morris International on the next trading day is expected to be 172.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 8.15 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 126.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Philip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Philip Morris' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Philip Morris | Philip Morris Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Philip Morris International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 171.25 on the downside to about 174.53 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Philip Morris stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Philip Morris stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3706 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2833 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.1137 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 126.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Philip Morris
Any investor evaluating Philip must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Philip Morris' price movement accurately. Philip Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Philip Morris Related Equities
The following equities are related to Philip Morris within the Consumer Staples space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Philip Morris against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Philip Morris Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Philip Morris assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Philip Morris International.
Philip Morris Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Philip Morris is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Philip Morris' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Philip Morris
Story coverage around Philip Morris International often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Philip Morris Short Properties
A short-interest review of Philip Morris International helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 B |