Plexus Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

PLXS Stock  USD 181.26  0.19  0.10%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plexus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 197.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.98. Plexus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Plexus Corp's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Plexus Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Plexus Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Plexus Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Plexus Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Plexus Corp's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.261
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.812
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.37
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.1967
Wall Street Target Price
159
Using Plexus Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Plexus Corp from the perspective of Plexus Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Plexus Corp using Plexus Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Plexus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Plexus Corp's stock price.

Plexus Corp Short Interest

An investor who is long Plexus Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Plexus Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Plexus Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
138.8072
Short Percent
0.0491
Short Ratio
4.8
Shares Short Prior Month
976.6 K
50 Day MA
152.6754

Plexus Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Plexus Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Plexus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Plexus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Plexus Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Plexus Corp Implied Volatility

    
  0.61  
Plexus Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Plexus Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Plexus Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Plexus Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Plexus Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plexus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 197.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.98.

Plexus Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 181.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plexus Corp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Plexus Stock please use our How to Invest in Plexus Corp guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Plexus contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Plexus Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Plexus Corp trading at USD 181.26, that is roughly USD 0.0691 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Plexus Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Plexus Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Plexus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Plexus Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Plexus Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Plexus Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Plexus Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Plexus Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Plexus Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Plexus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Plexus Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Plexus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Plexus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Plexus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Plexus Corp's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1985-09-30
Previous Quarter
237.6 M
Current Value
306.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
147 M
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Plexus Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Plexus Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Plexus Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Plexus Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 197.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.88, mean absolute percentage error of 25.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 236.98.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Plexus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Plexus Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Plexus Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Plexus CorpPlexus Corp Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Plexus Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Plexus Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Plexus Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 195.21 and 199.89, respectively. We have considered Plexus Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
181.26
195.21
Downside
197.55
Expected Value
199.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Plexus Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Plexus Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3678
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.885
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0251
SAESum of the absolute errors236.9826
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Plexus Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Plexus Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Plexus Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Plexus Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Plexus Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
178.74181.08183.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
144.23146.57199.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
137.21159.51181.80
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
144.69159.00176.49
Details

Plexus Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Plexus Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Plexus Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Plexus Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Plexus Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Plexus Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Plexus Corp's historical news coverage. Plexus Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 178.74 and 183.42, respectively. We have considered Plexus Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
181.26
178.74
Downside
181.08
After-hype Price
183.42
Upside
Plexus Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Plexus Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Plexus Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Plexus Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Plexus Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Plexus Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.41 
2.34
  0.18 
  0.55 
11 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
181.26
181.08
0.10 
520.00  
Notes

Plexus Corp Hype Timeline

Plexus Corp is at this time traded for 181.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.55. Plexus is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 181.08. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.41%. The volatility of related hype on Plexus Corp is about 174.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 181.81. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Plexus Corp was at this time reported as 54.22. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.61. Plexus Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.26. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of September 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Plexus Corp to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Plexus Stock please use our How to Invest in Plexus Corp guide.

Plexus Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Plexus Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Plexus Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Plexus Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Plexus Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
VICRVicor 10.15 10 per month 1.79  0.32  8.42 (3.61) 36.51 
AVTAvnet Inc 1.28 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 2.62 (1.89) 6.78 
OSISOSI Systems(7.66)7 per month 2.11  0.06  4.86 (3.51) 20.11 
ITRIItron Inc 0.40 12 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.51 (4.16) 24.28 
DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings 1.28 10 per month 2.56  0.10  6.72 (4.19) 24.58 
COMMCOMM Old(0.01)9 per month 2.44  0.11  4.14 (4.01) 15.17 
DLODlocal 0.22 7 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.99 (3.91) 11.21 
VIAVViavi Solutions(1.50)16 per month 2.20  0.15  4.69 (4.45) 30.34 
SAICScience Applications International 5.20 8 per month 1.70  0.04  3.42 (2.45) 20.14 
BDCBelden Inc 4.07 6 per month 1.68 (0.01) 3.11 (3.32) 10.85 

Other Forecasting Options for Plexus Corp

For every potential investor in Plexus, whether a beginner or expert, Plexus Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Plexus Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Plexus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Plexus Corp's price trends.

Plexus Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Plexus Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Plexus Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Plexus Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Plexus Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Plexus Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Plexus Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Plexus Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Plexus Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Plexus Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Plexus Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Plexus Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting plexus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Plexus Corp

The number of cover stories for Plexus Corp depends on current market conditions and Plexus Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Plexus Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Plexus Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Plexus Corp Short Properties

Plexus Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Plexus Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Plexus Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Plexus Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Plexus Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding27.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments306.8 M

Additional Tools for Plexus Stock Analysis

When running Plexus Corp's price analysis, check to measure Plexus Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Plexus Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Plexus Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Plexus Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Plexus Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Plexus Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.