OSI Systems Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

OSIS Stock  USD 274.45  -10.08  -3.54%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for OSI Systems is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Triple Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OSI Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 274.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 346.71.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past OSI Systems observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older OSI Systems observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for OSI Systems presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes.
Triple exponential smoothing for OSI Systems - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When OSI Systems prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in OSI Systems price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of OSI Systems.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of OSI Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 274.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.88 , mean absolute percentage error of 57.89 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 346.71 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OSI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OSI Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest OSI Systems  OSI Systems Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Forecasting OSI Systems for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 272.06 on the downside to about 277.46 on the upside.
Market Value
274.45
272.06
Downside
274.76
Expected Value
277.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OSI Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OSI Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.217
MADMean absolute deviation5.8764
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0215
SAESum of the absolute errors346.7092
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past OSI Systems observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older OSI Systems observations.

Other Forecasting Options for OSI Systems

The distribution of OSI Systems' daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in OSI Systems' chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of OSI Systems' linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in OSI.

OSI Systems Related Equities

Checking OSI Systems against related firms within the Information Technology space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge OSI Systems' relative financial strength. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OSI Systems Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for OSI Systems give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in OSI Systems. Market strength analysis for OSI Systems works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For OSI Systems, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.

OSI Systems Risk Indicators

A thorough review of OSI Systems' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in OSI Systems' allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of OSI Systems' risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in OSI Systems' provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for OSI Systems

A coverage review of OSI Systems shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.

OSI Systems Short Properties

Short-interest signals around OSI Systems can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding17.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments106.4 M

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