Meritage Stock Forward View
| MTH Stock | USD 63.08 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.49 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2762 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8898 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.5296 | Wall Street Target Price 83 |
This section provides headline-driven context for Meritage alongside peer activity. The sentiment layer reflects Meritage's options activity and short interest context.
Short Interest Snapshot - Meritage
Meritage's short interest, when combined with volume and price trend analysis, helps investors assess whether selling pressure in Meritage is likely to persist or abate.
200 Day MA 71.3018 | Short Percent 0.0513 | Short Ratio 3.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.9 M | 50 Day MA 72.849 |
RSI Reading for Meritage
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is projected to be 57.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.97.Meritage Hype-Price Relationship
Meritage's market sentiment is a measurable proxy for investor optimism or fear. Monitoring changes in sentiment trend alongside price data gives early warning of potential reversals in Meritage.
For Meritage, sentiment-adjusted positioning means sizing exposure relative to how extreme the current market mood has become. High positive sentiment with elevated valuation is a classic signal to reduce risk.
Meritage Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
For long-term investors in Meritage, monitoring Meritage's implied volatility helps assess whether hedging costs are reasonable and whether the options market is pricing in unusually high uncertainty.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is projected to be 57.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.97.Meritage after-hype prediction price | $ 63.08 |
The hype panel supports comparisons with forecasting models, technical signals, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage to cross-verify projections for Meritage. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Overview for current Meritage contract
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 3.5% across the 2026-06-18 option cycle. With Meritage trading near $ 63.08, that translates to about $ 2.21 per day in either direction.
Open Interest for Meritage Options Expiring 2026-06-18
Open interest highlights how many Meritage option contracts remain open, adding context to price and volatility.
Meritage Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Meritage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Meritage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Meritage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Meritage Cash Forecast
Statistical pattern recognition applied to Meritage's financial data reveals recurring cycles in cash generation that can be extrapolated to forecast Meritage's future financial performance with quantified uncertainty.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 728.9 M | Current Value 775.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 291.7 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is expected to be 57.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.31 , mean absolute percentage error of 8.28 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 140.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meritage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Meritage | Meritage Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Meritage for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 55.06 and upside around 59.85 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meritage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meritage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.2245 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.311 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0321 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 140.9697 |
The degree to which Meritage's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information. In highly covered equities, the mean reversion window tends to be shorter.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The after-hype price distribution for Meritage helps investors understand how much of Meritage's predicted return comes from the central scenario versus tail outcomes. Strategies that rely on tail events for Meritage are inherently more speculative.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news patterns for Meritage reveal how the market has historically digested different types of information about Meritage's business and market environment. Meritage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 60.69 and 65.47, respectively. The model extrapolates these patterns to estimate likely price boundaries following the next significant.
Current Value
Macroaxis estimates the after-hype price of Meritage across a 3 months horizon to evaluate where the instrument could settle once headline distortion subsides. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Meritage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Meritage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Meritage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.40 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 11 Events | 7 Events | In 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
63.08 | 63.08 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 16th of March 2026 Meritage is traded for 63.08. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.36, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Meritage is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 86.96%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Meritage is about 670.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 63.13. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.81. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Meritage has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.54. The company recorded earnings per share (EPS) of 6.35. The firm had its last dividend issued on the 17th of March 2026. Meritage completed a 2:1 stock split on 3rd of January 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 11 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage to cross-verify projections for Meritage. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Peer hype analysis helps investors build a more complete picture of Meritage's competitive environment by quantifying the market's sensitivity to news across all major players in Meritage's sector.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KBH | KB Home | -1.04 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 4.29 | -2.80 | 13.04 | |
| CVCO | Cavco Industries | 5.93 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 3.89 | -3.67 | 25.15 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | -2.14 | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 3.12 | -2.41 | 9.72 | |
| SKY | Skyline | -0.34 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 4.40 | -3.16 | 17.53 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | 1.35 | 16 per month | 0.00 | 0.0012 | 3.13 | -2.24 | 10.61 | |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding | -3.17 | 16 per month | 0.00 | -0.17 | 4.58 | -4.33 | 20.85 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | -0.67 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 2.31 | -2.74 | 10.63 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 3.05 | 7 per month | 2.61 | 0.03 | 4.64 | -4.22 | 10.99 | |
| TPH | TRI Pointe Homes | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.64 | 0.16 | 4.93 | -2.34 | 26.97 | |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners | 0.60 | 43 per month | 1.80 | 0.03 | 4.08 | -2.78 | 12.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for Meritage
The price trajectory of Meritage is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Meritage Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Meritage Related Equities
The following equities are related to Meritage within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Meritage against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Meritage Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Meritage stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Meritage with greater precision.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0203 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 63.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 63.31 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.34 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.03 |
Meritage Risk Indicators
Reviewing Meritage's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Meritage's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Meritage
A coverage review of Meritage helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Meritage Short Properties
A short-interest review of Meritage helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 70.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 775.2 M |
More Resources for Meritage Stock Analysis
Reviewing Meritage commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Meritage Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Meritage Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meritage to cross-verify projections for Meritage. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Explore our How to Trade Meritage Stock guide to learn how to trade Meritage effectively.With Meritage showing P/E 6.71 and ROE 8.77%, investors get more value when this analysis is combined with the diversification and construction tools below. Within the Consumer Cyclical space, these metrics give the peer comparison tools below a concrete starting point for relative analysis. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.49 | Dividend Share 1.72 | Earnings Share 6.35 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.12 |
Understanding Meritage includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Meritage's accounting equity. Meritage's market capitalization is 4.44 B. A P/B ratio of 0.81 suggests Meritage trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 5.33 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Meritage differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Meritage, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 6.71, a P/B ratio of 0.81, a profit margin of 7.73%, and ROE of 8.77%. Meritage's market quotation reflects the latest level where a willing buyer met a willing seller.