Meritage Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MTH Stock | USD 62.41 -1.77 -2.76% |
Meritage's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is projected to be 62.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.09.When Meritage prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Meritage trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Meritage observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing projections for Meritage are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Meritage on the next trading day is expected to be 62.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.24 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.09 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meritage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Meritage | Meritage Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Meritage for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 59.65 and upside around 64.51 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meritage stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meritage stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.083 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.0895 |
Other Forecasting Options for Meritage
The price trajectory of Meritage is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Meritage Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Meritage Related Equities
The following equities are related to Meritage within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Meritage against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Meritage Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Meritage stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Meritage with greater precision.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 62.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 62.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.89 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.77 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 37.23 |
Meritage Risk Indicators
Reviewing Meritage's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Meritage's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.46 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Meritage
A coverage review of Meritage helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Meritage Short Properties
A short-interest review of Meritage helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 70.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 775.2 M |