Five Star Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FSBC Stock | USD 37.55 -0.21 -0.56% |
Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.326 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.772 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.424 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.932 | Wall Street Target Price 42.6 |
The hype-based view summarizes Five Star's price response to recent headlines and peer coverage. This section reviews Five Star's options positioning and short interest as sentiment context.
Explore Dividend Yield or Price To Sales Ratio for further details.
Five Star Implied Volatility | 0.77 |
Five Star's implied volatility is a forward-looking measure derived from Five Star's option prices. It represents the market's consensus expectation of how much Five Star's stock will move over a given period - regardless of direction.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Star Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 37.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.44.Five Star after-hype prediction price | USD 37.76 |
This hype view sits alongside price forecasting, technical analysis, analyst consensus, earnings estimates, and momentum indicators.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Star to cross-verify projections for Five Star. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Five contract - Market Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0481% for the 2026-05-15 options. At a recent price around USD 37.55, the implied daily move is approximately USD 0.0181 , which is informational only.
Open Interest Across 2026-05-15 Five Option Contracts
For Five Star, open interest represents outstanding option contracts and offers a snapshot of market participation and positioning.
Five Star Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Five price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Five using various technical indicators. When you analyze Five charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Five Star Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Star Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 37.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.44 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Star's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Five Star Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Five Star | Five Star Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Five Star Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Five Star Bancorp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Star stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Star stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2873 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4407 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0115 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.44 |
Mean reversion is the tendency of Five Star's price to return to its historical average after periods of extreme deviation. Investors who identify when Five Star's is significantly above or below its mean may find compelling entry or exit opportunities.
Five Star After-Hype Price Density Analysis
This probability density chart for Five Star shows how predicted future prices are distributed across a range of outcomes. Wider distributions reflect higher uncertainty, while narrow distributions indicate greater consensus about Five Star's likely price range.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Five Star Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news analysis for Five Star provides statistically derived price boundaries for the session following a significant headline. Five Star's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.16 and 39.36, respectively. These boundaries are derived from Five Star's past price reactions to comparable news events, not forward-looking forecasts.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Five Star Bancorp assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Five Star Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Five Star is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Five Star backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Five Star, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.60 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 7 Events | 8 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.55 | 37.76 | 0.00 |
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Five Star Hype Timeline
Five Star Bancorp is currently traded for 37.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Five is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 192.77%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Five Star is about 544.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.59. About 28.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.81. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Five Star Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 2nd of February 2026. The entity completed a 2521:2500 stock split on 14th of July 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 7 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Star to cross-verify projections for Five Star. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Five Star Related Hype Analysis
Monitoring how Five Star's competitors respond to market-moving news provides a leading indicator for how Five Star itself may react to similar events. Peer hype analysis captures this cross-asset sentiment signal.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HFWA | Heritage Financial | 0.22 | 10 per month | 1.84 | 0.05 | 3.65 | -3.59 | 12.71 | |
| HBT | Hbt Financial | 0.43 | 9 per month | 1.64 | 0.08 | 3.34 | -2.96 | 9.31 | |
| CPF | Central Pacific Financial | -0.03 | 6 per month | 1.73 | 0.04 | 2.28 | -2.21 | 10.01 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | -0.27 | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.02 | 2.47 | -2.07 | 9.55 | |
| EFSC | Enterprise Financial Services | 1.59 | 10 per month | 1.67 | -0.0019 | 2.40 | -2.66 | 11.05 | |
| HBNC | Horizon Bancorp | 0.30 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 2.62 | -2.51 | 12.20 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | 0.60 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 3.27 | -2.05 | 18.20 | |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | -0.57 | 6 per month | 1.11 | 0.18 | 3.03 | -2.28 | 13.04 | |
| CFFN | Capitol Federal Financial | 0.13 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.06 | 2.85 | -2.47 | 10.77 | |
| CCNE | CNB Financial | 0.54 | 9 per month | 1.39 | 0.05 | 3.00 | -2.28 | 9.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for Five Star
For investors of all experience levels considering Five, understanding Five Star's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Five Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Five Star Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Five Star stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Five Star could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Five Star by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five Star Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Five Star stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Five Star.
Five Star Risk Indicators
Assessing Five Star's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Five Star's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.7 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Five Star
Coverage intensity for Five Star Bancorp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Five Star Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Five Star Bancorp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 567.6 M |
More Resources for Five Stock Analysis
A structured review of Five Star Bancorp often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Ratio context helps frame profitability, efficiency, and growth trends for Five Star Bancorp Stock. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Five Star Bancorp Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Five Star to cross-verify projections for Five Star. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. Analysis related to Five Star should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.326 | Dividend Share 0.85 | Earnings Share 2.9 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.201 |
The market value of Five Star Bancorp is measured differently than book value, which reflects Five accounting equity. Intrinsic value is an estimate of what Five Star's fundamentals imply, and it may differ from market and book figures. External forces such as sentiment and macro conditions can shift prices away from fundamental signals. Analytical frameworks help compare those viewpoints.
Note that Five Star's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. Evaluation typically reviews profitability, growth, balance sheet strength, industry position, and market signals. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.