Five Star Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| FSBC Stock | USD 36.78 0.81 2.25% |
Five Star's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Star Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 36.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.36.When Five Star Bancorp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Five Star Bancorp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Five Star observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for Five Star are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Five Star Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 36.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.36 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.36 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Five Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Five Star's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Five Star | Five Star Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Five Star Bancorp focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Five Star stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Five Star stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0098 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4298 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Five Star
For investors of all experience levels considering Five, understanding Five Star's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. Five Stock price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.Five Star Related Equities
The following equities are related to Five Star within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Five Star against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Five Star Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Five Star stock provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Five Star.
Five Star Risk Indicators
Assessing Five Star's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Five Star's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Five Star
A coverage review of Five Star Bancorp shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Five Star Short Properties
A short-interest review of Five Star Bancorp provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 21.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 567.6 M |