First Quantum Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

FM Stock  CAD 29.79  -1.30  -4.18%   
First Quantum Minerals's Simple Moving Average forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Quantum Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 30.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.62.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of First Quantum Minerals price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of First Quantum. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future The Simple Moving Average projections for First Quantum Minerals are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
A two period moving average forecast for First Quantum is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of First Quantum Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 30.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.15 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.62 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Quantum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates First Quantum's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Market Value
29.79
30.44
Expected Value
33.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Quantum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Quantum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2242
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1414
MADMean absolute deviation1.1461
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.031
SAESum of the absolute errors67.62
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of First Quantum Minerals price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of First Quantum. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Other Forecasting Options for First Quantum

The price trajectory of First is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. First Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.

First Quantum Related Equities

The following equities are related to First Quantum within the Materials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing First Quantum against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

First Quantum Market Strength Events

Understanding the market strength of First Quantum stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in First Quantum Minerals with greater precision.

First Quantum Risk Indicators

Reviewing First Quantum's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding First Quantum's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for First Quantum

The amount of media and story coverage tied to First Quantum Minerals can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

First Quantum Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for First Quantum Minerals is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding832.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments716 M

More Resources for First Stock Analysis

Other Information on Investing in First Stock

First Quantum financial ratios help frame valuation context across profits, cash flow, and enterprise value. They help compare First across valuation measures.