First Quantum Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| FM Stock | CAD 31.39 0.64 2.08% |
The Polynomial Regression forecast reference data for First Quantum Minerals is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Quantum Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 29.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.00.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the First Quantum historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm The Polynomial Regression projections for First Quantum Minerals are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Quantum Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 29.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.44 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.20 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.00 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Quantum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
Forecasting First Quantum Minerals for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Quantum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Quantum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1126 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4355 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0384 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.0017 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Quantum
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of First Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When First Quantum's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in First Quantum's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.First Quantum Related Equities
Checking First Quantum against related firms within the Materials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Checking First Quantum against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of First Quantum.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Quantum Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for First Quantum enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in First Quantum Minerals. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of First Quantum Minerals positions across market cycles.
First Quantum Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing First Quantum's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in First Quantum's and determining how best to manage it. Studying First Quantum's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of first stock.
| Mean Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Variance | 11.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for First Quantum
A coverage review of First Quantum Minerals shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
First Quantum Short Properties
Short-interest signals around First Quantum Minerals can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 832.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 716 M |
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Other Information on Investing in First Stock
Financial ratios for First Quantum show relationships between important financial metrics. They provide context across profit, cash flow, and overall value.