Espey Mfg Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ESP Stock | USD 58.00 3.65 6.72% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.394 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.69 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.59 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.63 | Wall Street Target Price 64 |
The hype-based summary links Espey Mfg Electronics attention patterns with price response and peers.
RSI Summary for Espey
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Espey Mfg Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.97.Espey Mfg Electronics Hype Impact Pattern
Tracking public sentiment around Espey Mfg Electronics quantifies the psychological premium or discount embedded in Espey Mfg's current price. Extreme sentiment readings frequently mark turning points in the stock.
The ratio of positive to negative sentiment signals around Espey Mfg provides a composite view of how the stock is perceived by the market. A sharp shift in this ratio often precedes a change in price direction.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Espey Mfg Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.97.Espey Mfg after-hype prediction price | $ 58.0 |
Attention metrics here are presented with forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Espey Mfg provides a cross-check on projections for Espey Mfg. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Espey Mfg Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Espey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Espey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Espey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Espey Mfg Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 57.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47 , mean absolute percentage error of 4.32 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.97 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Espey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Espey Mfg's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Espey Mfg | Espey Mfg Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Espey Mfg Electronics uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Espey Mfg stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Espey Mfg stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5748 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3032 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.475 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0276 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.9735 |
Mean reversion in Espey Mfg is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Investors who rely solely on expected value estimates for Espey Mfg miss the full picture. Espey Mfg's probability distribution reveals that expected value can be achieved through very different combinations of outcomes, each with different risk implications.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-news price analysis for Espey Mfg is built on the observation that Espey Mfg's market reactions to news are not random but follow recognizable patterns. Espey Mfg's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 54.19 and 61.81, respectively. Identifying and quantifying these patterns for Espey Mfg is the core purpose of this model.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Espey Mfg Electronics assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Espey Mfg is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Espey Mfg backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Espey Mfg, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 3.89 | 3.16 | 0.00 | 9 Events | 6 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.00 | 58.00 | 0.00 |
|
Hype Timeline
On the 14th of March 2026 Espey Mfg Electronics is traded for 58.00. The company has historical hype elasticity of -3.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Espey is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 64.09%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.52%. %. The volatility of related hype on Espey Mfg is about 389000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.00. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Espey Mfg was currently reported as 19.36. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of March 2026. Espey Mfg Electronics completed a 2:1 stock split on 3rd of January 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 9 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Espey Mfg provides a cross-check on projections for Espey Mfg. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The information ratio and semi-deviation metrics in the peer comparison table for Espey Mfg provide a risk-adjusted view of how efficiently Espey Mfg's competitors convert news exposure into returns relative to downside risk.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ULBI | Ultralife | -0.06 | 7 per month | 2.69 | 0.11 | 6.46 | -4.85 | 19.06 | |
| MATH | Metalpha Technology Holding | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.25 | 7.79 | -8.63 | 25.18 | |
| SNT | Senstar Technologies | -0.18 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.0033 | 4.67 | -5.59 | 21.33 | |
| OPXS | Optex Systems Holdings | -0.01 | 8 per month | 4.54 | 0.01 | 6.67 | -7.62 | 26.05 | |
| IRS | IRSA Inversiones Y | -0.52 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.0005 | 4.05 | -3.25 | 12.27 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | -0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 5.86 | -5.49 | 18.37 | |
| GIFI | Gulf Island Fabrication | -0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 2.43 | -1.23 | 49.85 | |
| OPTT | Ocean Power Technologies | -0.03 | 10 per month | 6.55 | 0.04 | 22.81 | -10.71 | 38.97 | |
| EML | Eastern Co | -0.18 | 8 per month | 1.92 | 0.07 | 3.62 | -3.28 | 10.51 | |
| HURC | Hurco Companies | 0.97 | 3 per month | 2.21 | 0.02 | 3.18 | -3.44 | 12.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Espey Mfg
For investors considering Espey, Espey Mfg's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Espey Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Espey Mfg Related Equities
The following equities are related to Espey Mfg within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Espey Mfg against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Espey Mfg Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Espey Mfg provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Espey Mfg Electronics.
Espey Mfg Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Espey Mfg's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Espey Mfg's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Variance | 14.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Espey Mfg
Coverage intensity for Espey Mfg Electronics matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Espey Mfg Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Espey Mfg Electronics matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 43.6 M |
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