Edison International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

EIX Stock  USD 60.77  0.03  0.05%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Edison International on the next trading day is expected to be 60.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.73. Edison Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Edison International's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Edison International's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Edison International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Edison International's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.636
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.565
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.0771
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.1524
Wall Street Target Price
66.7143
Using Edison International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Edison International from the perspective of Edison International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Edison International using Edison International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Edison using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Edison International's stock price.

Edison International Short Interest

An investor who is long Edison International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Edison International and may potentially protect profits, hedge Edison International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
55.7381
Short Percent
0.0305
Short Ratio
3.27
Shares Short Prior Month
8.7 M
50 Day MA
59.2438

Edison International Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Edison International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Edison. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Edison can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Edison International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Edison International Implied Volatility

    
  0.43  
Edison International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Edison International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Edison International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Edison International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Edison International's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Edison International on the next trading day is expected to be 60.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.73.

Edison International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 60.96  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Edison International to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Edison Stock please use our How to Invest in Edison International guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Edison contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Edison International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Edison International trading at USD 60.77, that is roughly USD 0.0163 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Edison International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Edison International options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Edison Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Edison International's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Edison International's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Edison International stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Edison International's open interest, investors have to compare it to Edison International's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Edison International is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Edison. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Edison International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Edison price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Edison using various technical indicators. When you analyze Edison charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Edison International's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1994-03-31
Previous Quarter
140 M
Current Value
456 M
Quarterly Volatility
B
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Edison International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Edison International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Edison International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Edison International on the next trading day is expected to be 60.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.63, mean absolute percentage error of 0.64, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Edison Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Edison International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Edison International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Edison InternationalEdison International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Edison International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Edison International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Edison International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.79 and 61.46, respectively. We have considered Edison International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
60.77
60.13
Expected Value
61.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Edison International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Edison International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.672
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6349
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors38.7292
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Edison International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Edison International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Edison International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Edison International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
59.6160.9662.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.6963.0764.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
55.7359.1062.46
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
60.7166.7174.05
Details

Edison International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Edison International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Edison International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Edison International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Edison International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Edison International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Edison International's historical news coverage. Edison International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 59.61 and 62.31, respectively. We have considered Edison International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
60.77
60.96
After-hype Price
62.31
Upside
Edison International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Edison International is based on 3 months time horizon.

Edison International Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Edison International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Edison International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Edison International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
1.34
  0.19 
  1.11 
10 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
60.77
60.96
0.31 
96.40  
Notes

Edison International Hype Timeline

On the 25th of January Edison International is traded for 60.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.19, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.11. Edison is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 60.96 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 96.4%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Edison International is about 16.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.66. The company reported the last year's revenue of 17.6 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.37 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 10.09 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Edison International to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Edison Stock please use our How to Invest in Edison International guide.

Edison International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Edison International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Edison International's future price movements. Getting to know how Edison International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Edison International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CMSCMS Energy(0.02)10 per month 0.00 (0.17) 1.27 (1.56) 5.00 
EBRCentrais Electricas Brasileiras(0.47)9 per month 0.97  0.31  3.69 (1.88) 7.18 
EBR-BCentrais Eltricas Brasileiras 0.1 8 per month 4.47  0.09  5.25 (3.48) 31.49 
KEPKorea Electric Power 0.30 7 per month 2.32  0.15  6.12 (4.09) 17.60 
EVRGEvergy(55.85)10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 1.09 (1.31) 4.29 
FTSFortis Inc 0.11 16 per month 0.60 (0.04) 1.26 (1.00) 2.88 
LNTAlliant Energy Corp 0.37 6 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.19 (1.29) 4.27 

Other Forecasting Options for Edison International

For every potential investor in Edison, whether a beginner or expert, Edison International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Edison Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Edison. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Edison International's price trends.

Edison International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Edison International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Edison International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Edison International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Edison International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Edison International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Edison International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Edison International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Edison International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Edison International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Edison International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Edison International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting edison stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Edison International

The number of cover stories for Edison International depends on current market conditions and Edison International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Edison International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Edison International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Edison International Short Properties

Edison International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Edison International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Edison International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Edison International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Edison International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding388 M
Cash And Short Term Investments193 M

Additional Tools for Edison Stock Analysis

When running Edison International's price analysis, check to measure Edison International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Edison International is operating at the current time. Most of Edison International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Edison International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Edison International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Edison International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.