Dawson Geophysical Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DWSN Stock | USD 2.25 0.07 3.02% |
Dawson Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Dawson Geophysical's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Dawson Geophysical's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Dawson Geophysical fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Dawson Geophysical's stock price is about 60 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dawson, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Wall Street Target Price 4 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) |
Using Dawson Geophysical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dawson Geophysical from the perspective of Dawson Geophysical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dawson Geophysical on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.47. Dawson Geophysical after-hype prediction price | USD 2.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dawson Geophysical to cross-verify your projections. Dawson Geophysical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dawson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dawson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dawson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dawson Geophysical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dawson Geophysical on the next trading day is expected to be 2.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.47.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dawson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dawson Geophysical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dawson Geophysical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dawson Geophysical | Dawson Geophysical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dawson Geophysical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dawson Geophysical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dawson Geophysical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.16, respectively. We have considered Dawson Geophysical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dawson Geophysical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dawson Geophysical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0674 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0057 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0578 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0299 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.4678 |
Predictive Modules for Dawson Geophysical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dawson Geophysical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dawson Geophysical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dawson Geophysical After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dawson Geophysical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dawson Geophysical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dawson Geophysical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dawson Geophysical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dawson Geophysical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dawson Geophysical's historical news coverage. Dawson Geophysical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 6.16, respectively. We have considered Dawson Geophysical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dawson Geophysical is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dawson Geophysical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dawson Geophysical Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dawson Geophysical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dawson Geophysical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dawson Geophysical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 3.90 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.25 | 2.25 | 0.00 |
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Dawson Geophysical Hype Timeline
Dawson Geophysical is currently traded for 2.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Dawson is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dawson Geophysical is about 1114.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.17. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Dawson Geophysical was currently reported as 0.53. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.24. Dawson Geophysical last dividend was issued on the 19th of April 2024. The entity had 105:100 split on the 11th of May 2018. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dawson Geophysical to cross-verify your projections.Dawson Geophysical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dawson Geophysical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dawson Geophysical's future price movements. Getting to know how Dawson Geophysical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dawson Geophysical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RCON | Recon Technology | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.60 | (6.38) | 17.78 | |
| DTI | Drilling Tools International | (0.17) | 11 per month | 4.24 | 0.13 | 10.80 | (7.35) | 22.79 | |
| PED | PEDEVCO Corp | (0.04) | 9 per month | 3.74 | 0.01 | 6.00 | (7.27) | 16.10 | |
| MAXN | Maxeon Solar Technologies | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.76 | (6.48) | 19.03 | |
| INDO | Indonesia Energy | (0.03) | 7 per month | 3.58 | 0.15 | 10.28 | (5.06) | 29.54 | |
| KLXE | KLX Energy Services | 0.04 | 8 per month | 4.38 | 0.13 | 10.85 | (7.26) | 27.68 | |
| LSE | Leishen Energy Holding | (3.52) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 6.60 | (5.90) | 15.69 | |
| SPRU | Spruce Power Holding | 0.04 | 8 per month | 5.24 | 0.17 | 13.68 | (5.98) | 81.84 | |
| USEG | US Energy Corp | (0.01) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 7.07 | (5.05) | 13.11 | |
| SND | Smart Sand | 0.38 | 2 per month | 4.09 | 0.23 | 10.57 | (5.83) | 36.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dawson Geophysical
For every potential investor in Dawson, whether a beginner or expert, Dawson Geophysical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dawson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dawson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dawson Geophysical's price trends.Dawson Geophysical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dawson Geophysical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dawson Geophysical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dawson Geophysical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dawson Geophysical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dawson Geophysical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dawson Geophysical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dawson Geophysical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dawson Geophysical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Dawson Geophysical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dawson Geophysical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dawson Geophysical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dawson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.94 | |||
| Variance | 15.53 | |||
| Downside Variance | 12.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.75) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dawson Geophysical
The number of cover stories for Dawson Geophysical depends on current market conditions and Dawson Geophysical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dawson Geophysical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dawson Geophysical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dawson Geophysical Short Properties
Dawson Geophysical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dawson Geophysical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dawson Geophysical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dawson Geophysical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dawson Geophysical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 30.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dawson Geophysical to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Dawson Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dawson Geophysical guide.You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Will Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector continue expanding? Could Dawson diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dawson Geophysical. Projected growth potential of Dawson fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Dawson Geophysical data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Earnings Share (0.24) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Dawson Geophysical using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Dawson Geophysical's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Dawson Geophysical's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Dawson Geophysical's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Dawson Geophysical should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Dawson Geophysical's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.