Dorman Products Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| DORM Stock | USD 125.53 2.53 1.98% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dorman Products on the next trading day is expected to be 125.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.68. Dorman Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Dorman Products' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Dorman Products' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Dorman Products fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Dorman Products' share price is approaching 40 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Dorman Products, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.378 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.1943 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.82 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.445 | Wall Street Target Price 170.375 |
Using Dorman Products hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dorman Products from the perspective of Dorman Products response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dorman Products using Dorman Products' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dorman using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dorman Products' stock price.
Dorman Products Short Interest
An investor who is long Dorman Products may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Dorman Products and may potentially protect profits, hedge Dorman Products with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 133.1878 | Short Percent 0.0612 | Short Ratio 6.56 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.1 M | 50 Day MA 128.1836 |
Dorman Products Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Dorman Products' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dorman. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dorman can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dorman Products. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Dorman Products Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
Dorman Products' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dorman Products stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dorman Products' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dorman Products stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dorman Products' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dorman Products on the next trading day is expected to be 125.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.68. Dorman Products after-hype prediction price | USD 125.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dorman Products to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dorman contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dorman Products will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Dorman Products trading at USD 125.53, that is roughly USD 0.0251 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dorman Products' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dorman Products options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Dorman Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Dorman Products' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Dorman Products' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Dorman Products stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Dorman Products' open interest, investors have to compare it to Dorman Products' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Dorman Products is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Dorman. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Dorman Products Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dorman price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dorman using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dorman charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Dorman Products Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Dorman Products on the next trading day is expected to be 125.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 8.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dorman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dorman Products' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Dorman Products Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Dorman Products | Dorman Products Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Dorman Products Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Dorman Products' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dorman Products' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 123.46 and 127.60, respectively. We have considered Dorman Products' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dorman Products stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dorman Products stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5417 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8947 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.68 |
Predictive Modules for Dorman Products
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dorman Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Dorman Products After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dorman Products at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dorman Products or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dorman Products, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dorman Products Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dorman Products' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dorman Products' historical news coverage. Dorman Products' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 123.46 and 127.60, respectively. We have considered Dorman Products' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dorman Products is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dorman Products is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dorman Products Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dorman Products is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dorman Products backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dorman Products, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 2.07 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 21 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 21 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
125.53 | 125.53 | 0.00 |
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Dorman Products Hype Timeline
Dorman Products is currently traded for 125.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.14. Dorman is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dorman Products is about 524.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 125.67. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Dorman Products was currently reported as 48.51. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.37. Dorman Products recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.03. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 2012. The firm had 2:1 split on the 18th of June 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 21 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dorman Products to cross-verify your projections.Dorman Products Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dorman Products' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dorman Products' future price movements. Getting to know how Dorman Products' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dorman Products may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RUSHA | Rush Enterprises A | 0.39 | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 3.25 | (1.66) | 10.82 | |
| GTX | Garrett Motion | 0.39 | 4 per month | 1.14 | 0.15 | 3.18 | (2.27) | 23.25 | |
| BC | Brunswick | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.54 | 0.11 | 2.88 | (2.82) | 14.63 | |
| KTB | Kontoor Brands | 0.39 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 3.87 | (4.81) | 13.84 | |
| GNTX | Gentex | 0.39 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.63 | (2.26) | 12.10 | |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings | 0.82 | 10 per month | 3.04 | (0.03) | 2.44 | (2.84) | 15.21 | |
| TNL | Travel Leisure Co | 0.39 | 14 per month | 1.60 | 0.08 | 3.13 | (2.43) | 22.04 | |
| CHH | Choice Hotels International | 0.39 | 11 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 4.35 | (3.41) | 10.13 | |
| SON | Sonoco Products | 0.39 | 3 per month | 0.98 | 0.16 | 3.18 | (2.07) | 6.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Dorman Products
For every potential investor in Dorman, whether a beginner or expert, Dorman Products' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dorman Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dorman. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dorman Products' price trends.Dorman Products Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dorman Products stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dorman Products could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dorman Products by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Dorman Products Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dorman Products stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dorman Products shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dorman Products stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dorman Products entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5874.7 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.52) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 127.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 127.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.48) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.53) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.73 |
Dorman Products Risk Indicators
The analysis of Dorman Products' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dorman Products' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dorman stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Variance | 4.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Dorman Products
The number of cover stories for Dorman Products depends on current market conditions and Dorman Products' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dorman Products is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dorman Products' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Dorman Products Short Properties
Dorman Products' future price predictability will typically decrease when Dorman Products' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dorman Products often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dorman Products' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dorman Products' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 31 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 57.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dorman Products to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Dorman Stock, please use our How to Invest in Dorman Products guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dorman Products. If investors know Dorman will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dorman Products listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.378 | Earnings Share 8.03 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.079 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Dorman Products is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dorman that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dorman Products' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dorman Products' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dorman Products' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dorman Products' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dorman Products' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dorman Products is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dorman Products' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.