Dorman Products Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

DORM Stock  USD 105.68  -1.21  -1.13%   
In the current reporting cycle, Dorman Products shows the short-cycle RSI at 29, aligning with traditional oversold thresholds. Values below 30 typically indicate extended downward momentum relative to recent price action.
Momentum
Sell Stretched
 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The hype cycle around Dorman Products can be quantified and compared to historical sentiment baselines. This module uses that comparison to generate price predictions that reflect the sentiment component of market value. Fundamental factors used to frame Dorman Products' forecast:
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.79
 EPS Estimate Next Quarter
2.1471
 EPS Estimate Current Year
8.2825
 EPS Estimate Next Year
9.2475
 Wall Street Target Price
153.375
This view relates Dorman Products' headline activity to recent price response context. Options and short interest provide context for sentiment around Dorman Products in this section.

Short Interest Tracking - Dorman Products

Dorman Products short interest relative to sector peers provides additional context. If Dorman Products' short interest is significantly higher than competitors. the market may perceive company-specific risks that warrant investigation.
 200 Day MA
133.9738
 Short Percent
0.0575
 Short Ratio
6.07
 Shares Short Prior Month
1.1 M
 50 Day MA
124.1974

RSI Oscillator - Dorman

The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dorman Products on the next trading day is expected to be 106.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.05.

Attention-to-Price Pattern - Dorman Products

The relationship between Dorman Products' news sentiment and price action reveals how efficiently the market processes new information about Dorman. Persistent sentiment-price gaps create exploitable opportunities for disciplined investors.
Investors who systematically buy Dorman Products when sentiment is deeply negative and sell when it is excessively positive have historically captured mean-reversion returns not available to purely fundamental or technical investors.
Dorman Products Implied Volatility
    
  0.67  
Implied volatility in Dorman Products' options does not predict direction - it measures magnitude. An investor expecting a large move in Dorman Products stock in either direction may benefit from strategies that profit from volatility expansion.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dorman Products on the next trading day is expected to be 106.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.05.
Dorman Products after-hype prediction price
    
  $ 103.91  
The sentiment view is a companion to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings trends.
Cross-verify projections for Dorman Products using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dorman Products. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Dorman Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Dorman Products stock.

Rule 16 Reference for the current Dorman contract - Performance Context

Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-05-15 options is about 0.0419%. This context is informational: with Dorman Products near $ 105.68, the daily move estimate is $ 0.0443 .

Open Interest Map for Dorman Options 2026-05-15

The open interest measure summarizes active contracts for Dorman Products and can be paired with trend context.

Dorman Products Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Dorman price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dorman using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dorman charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Dorman Products is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Dorman Products Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of March 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Dorman Products on the next trading day is expected to be 106.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.70 , mean absolute percentage error of 6.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 100.05 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dorman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dorman Products' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dorman Products Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Dorman Products  Dorman Products Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Dorman Products Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Dorman Products uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
105.68
104.50
Downside
106.28
Expected Value
108.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dorman Products stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dorman Products stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.2412
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.5614
MADMean absolute deviation1.6958
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors100.05
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Dorman Products price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Dorman Products. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future
Experienced Dorman Products' investors use mean reversion as a complement to momentum analysis: momentum identifies the trend; mean reversion identifies when that trend has extended beyond sustainable levels.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.13103.91117.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
96.30133.07134.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
103.99121.91139.82
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
139.57153.38170.25
Details
The most actionable insights from Dorman Products analysis often emerge from peer comparison rather than standalone review. Dorman Products' metrics gain meaning when benchmarked against the best and worst performers in its sector.

Dorman Products After-Hype Price Density Analysis

This probability distribution for Dorman Products is built from Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate Dorman Products' historical volatility, mean reversion tendencies, and jump risk. The resulting distribution captures a broader range of Dorman Products outcomes than simple linear.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Dorman Products Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

The boundaries derived from Dorman Products' historical news analysis represent the range within which Dorman Products's price has typically settled after comparable headline events. Dorman Products' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.13 and 117.70, respectively. Outcomes outside these boundaries are less common but not rare for Dorman Products.
Current Value
105.68
102.13
Downside
103.91
After-hype Price
117.70
Upside
The after-hype framework applied to Dorman Products assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.

Dorman Products Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dorman Products is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dorman Products backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dorman Products, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30 
1.79
  3.31 
  0.06 
10 Events
7 Events
In 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
105.68
103.91
2.89 
16.24  
Notes

Dorman Products Hype Timeline

Dorman Products is currently traded for 105.68. The company has historical hype elasticity of -3.31, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Dorman is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 103.91. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 16.24%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.89%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Dorman Products is about 847.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 105.62. About 13.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Dorman Products was currently reported as 48.6. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.17. Dorman Products recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.64. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 2012. The firm completed a 2:1 stock split on 18th of June 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 10 days.
Cross-verify projections for Dorman Products using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dorman Products. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Dorman Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Dorman Products stock.

Dorman Products Related Hype Analysis

Understanding Dorman Products' position within its competitive set helps investors assess whether news affecting a peer is a headwind or tailwind for Dorman Products. This distinction requires knowledge of the competitive dynamics specific to Dorman Products' industry.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RUSHARush Enterprises A 2.61 8 per month 1.69 0.15 3.53 -3.34 10.83
GTXGarrett Motion 0.55 11 per month 1.93 0.07 3.35 -3.33 13.52
BCBrunswick-3.20 11 per month 2.36 0.03 2.81 -4.21 16.58
KTBKontoor Brands 1.67 7 per month 0.00 -0.04 3.86 -4.81 24.96
GNTXGentex-0.07 13 per month 0.00 -0.05 2.65 -2.01 8.90
SLGNSilgan Holdings 0.14 10 per month 1.22 0.09 2.18 -2.12 12.78
TNLTravel Leisure Co-0.54 11 per month 1.67 0.04 2.85 -2.93 7.99
CHHChoice Hotels International-2.40 9 per month 2.01 0.05 3.73 -3.64 11.60
SONSonoco Products-0.66 10 per month 0.75 0.23 2.97 -1.67 12.47

Other Forecasting Options for Dorman Products

Understanding Dorman Products' price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Dorman as a position. Dorman Stock price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.

Dorman Products Related Equities

The following equities are related to Dorman Products within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Dorman Products against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dorman Products Market Strength Events

For traders and investors in Dorman Products, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the stock's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Dorman Products shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.

Dorman Products Risk Indicators

Analyzing Dorman Products' risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Dorman Products' investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Dorman Products

Coverage intensity for Dorman Products matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Dorman Products Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Dorman Products matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding30.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments49.4 M

More Resources for Dorman Stock Analysis

Reviewing Dorman Products commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Selected reports below provide context for Dorman Stock:
Cross-verify projections for Dorman Products using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Dorman Products. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Our How to Buy Dorman Stock guide explains the steps to invest in Dorman Products stock.
Analysis related to Dorman Products should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
 Quarterly Earnings Growth
-0.79
 Earnings Share
6.64
 Revenue Per Share
69.753
 Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.008
 Return On Assets
0.0906
Understanding Dorman Products includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Dorman accounting equity. Dorman Products' market capitalization is 3.27 B. A P/B ratio of 2.2 indicates the market values Dorman Products above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 3.74 B. Intrinsic value is an estimate of underlying worth, separate from trading price and book value. The valuation process compares these measures for perspective.
The concept of value for Dorman Products differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Dorman Products, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 25.1, a P/B ratio of 2.2, a profit margin of 9.59%, ROE of 14.74%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.