American Express Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AXP Stock | USD 295.50 0.57 0.19% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for American Express. The model output shown here is derived from American Express's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 293.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 302.57.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past American Express observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American Express observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for American Express is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 293.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 49.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 302.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Express | American Express Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting American Express for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.1162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.1283 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.015 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 302.568 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Express
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.American Express Related Equities
The following equities are related to American Express within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing American Express against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Express Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Express shares will generate the highest return on.
American Express Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Express
A coverage review of American Express shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
American Express Short Properties
A short-interest review of American Express provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 696 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.5 B |
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