American Express Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| AXP Stock | USD 301.91 6.41 2.17% |
This reference page presents Polynomial Regression forecast data for American Express. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 288.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 387.73.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the American Express historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm This Polynomial Regression forecast data for American Express is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 288.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.36 , mean absolute percentage error of 61.23 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 387.73 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Express | American Express Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for American Express focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 286.72 on the downside to about 290.71 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.2251 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.3561 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 387.7251 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Express
American Express' daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in American often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.American Express Related Equities
These related stocks within the Financials space give benchmarks for judging American Express' results, margins, and growth trend. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across American Express' peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Express Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how American Express stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading American Express.
American Express Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding American Express' allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Express
Coverage intensity for American Express matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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American Express Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for American Express is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 696 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 48.5 B |
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