Ares Capital Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ARCC Stock | USD 17.94 0.08 0.45% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.25 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4875 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9332 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9253 | Wall Street Target Price 21.8846 |
This section summarizes Ares Capital headline activity and related price response context. Options and short interest metrics are combined here to describe sentiment for Ares Capital.
Short Interest Overview for Ares Capital
Ares Capital's short interest measures the total number of shares sold short but not yet covered. Rising short interest can signal growing bearish sentiment among institutional and retail investors.
200 Day MA 20.9031 | Short Percent 0.041 | Short Ratio 3.44 | Shares Short Prior Month 22 M | 50 Day MA 19.6978 |
RSI Reading for Ares
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27.Ares Capital News-to-Price Pattern
Public perception of Ares Capital - captured through news and social media signals - can drive Ares Capital's stock price away from intrinsic value for extended periods. Analyzing these biases provides an edge for contrarian investors.
When Ares Capital's market sentiment is overly bullish relative to its actual financial performance, the stock may be overvalued. Excessively negative sentiment can create buying opportunities for patient investors.
Ares Capital Implied Volatility | 1.72 |
High implied volatility in Ares Capital's options signals that the market anticipates large price swings in Ares Capital stock. Conversely, low implied volatility indicates that investors expect relatively stable price action.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27.Ares Capital after-hype prediction price | $ 18.13 |
The hype panel supports comparisons with forecasting models, technical signals, analyst consensus, and earnings.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Capital to cross-verify projections for Ares Capital. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Ares contract
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 10.75% across the 2026-03-20 option cycle. This context is informational: with Ares Capital near $ 17.94, the daily move estimate is $ 1.93 .
Open Interest for Ares 2026-03-20 Options
Open interest for Ares Capital options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.
Ares Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ares using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 17.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ares Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ares Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ares Capital | Ares Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Ares Capital for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ares Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ares Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0153 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.208 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.2691 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that Ares Capital's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for Ares Capital visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of Ares Capital's outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for Ares Capital after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. Ares Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.71 and 19.55, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of Ares Capital's short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Ares Capital assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ares Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ares Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ares Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 1.41 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 12 Events | 9 Events | In 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.94 | 18.13 | 0.22 |
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Hype Timeline
Ares Capital is presently traded for 17.94. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Ares is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.13 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Ares Capital is about 4976.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.94. The company reported previous year's revenue of 3.15 B. Net Income was 1.42 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.05 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 12 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Capital to cross-verify projections for Ares Capital. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between Ares Capital and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across Ares Capital's competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate Ares Capital's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | -0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.18 | 1.71 | -2.97 | 9.03 | |
| TSLX | Sixth Street Specialty | -0.19 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.16 | 2.13 | -2.96 | 8.19 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | 1.14 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 2.59 | -2.42 | 6.68 | |
| CSWC | Capital Southwest | 0.13 | 8 per month | 1.38 | 0.06 | 2.08 | -2.50 | 7.72 | |
| GAIN | Gladstone Investment | -0.10 | 10 per month | 0.84 | 0.08 | 1.77 | -1.29 | 4.62 | |
| PFLT | PennantPark Floating Rate | -0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 1.95 | -2.96 | 6.18 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.04 | 10 per month | 1.97 | 0.03 | 4.35 | -3.40 | 14.13 | |
| HTGC | Hercules Capital | 0.63 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.19 | 2.59 | -3.81 | 11.40 | |
| GLAD | Gladstone Capital | -1.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 2.04 | -1.83 | 8.85 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | -0.73 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.17 | 1.89 | -5.09 | 26.13 | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.25 | 1.72 | -3.86 | 10.97 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | -0.15 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 2.23 | -2.48 | 7.45 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ares Capital
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Ares needs to understand the dynamics of Ares Capital's price movement. Price charts for Ares Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Ares Capital Related Equities
The following equities are related to Ares Capital within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Ares Capital against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ares Capital Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Ares Capital enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Ares Capital.
Ares Capital Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Ares Capital's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with Ares Capital's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.997 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Variance | 1.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ares Capital
Coverage intensity for Ares Capital matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Ares Capital Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Ares Capital matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 699 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 924 M |
More Resources for Ares Stock Analysis
Understanding Ares Capital typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Ares Capital Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Ares Capital Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ares Capital to cross-verify projections for Ares Capital. The view provides historical context for the projection set. For more information on how to buy Ares Stock please use our How to Buy Ares Stock guide.Ares Capital at P/E 5.58 and ROE 9.39% (12.82 Billion market cap) - this analysis works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the position fits in a broader portfolio. Those return and profitability levels shape the investment picture - the supplemental tools help investors decide if they are sustainable. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.25 | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 1.86 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.045 |
The market value of Ares Capital is measured differently than book value, which reflects Ares accounting equity. Ares Capital's market capitalization is 12.82 B. A P/B ratio of 0.9 suggests Ares Capital trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 28.13 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
It is useful to distinguish Ares Capital's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Ares Capital, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 5.58, a P/B ratio of 0.9, a profit margin of 42.56%, and ROE of 9.39%. Ares Capital's trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.