Ares Capital Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ARCC Stock | USD 17.92 -0.14 -0.78% |
Ares Capital's Simple Regression reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for Ares Capital. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for Ares Capital.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.29.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Ares Capital historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. All Simple Regression forecast figures shown for Ares Capital are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ares Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.29 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ares Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ares Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ares Capital | Ares Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Ares Capital uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 16.24 on the downside to about 19.23 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ares Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ares Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.042 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2835 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.2946 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ares Capital
Bollinger Bands applied to Ares Stock price data measure how far Ares has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Ares Capital's price data. On-balance volume for Ares Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Ares. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Ares Capital's.Ares Capital Related Equities
Checking Ares Capital against related firms within the Financials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to Ares Capital often signals structural advantages or weaknesses. Combining quantitative ratios with qualitative context such as management quality and market position sharpens peer comparisons.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ares Capital Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Ares Capital, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Ares Capital positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Ares Capital. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Ares Capital.
Ares Capital Risk Indicators
Analyzing Ares Capital's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for ares stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Ares Capital's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing Ares Capital's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in Ares Capital's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Variance | 2.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ares Capital
Coverage intensity for Ares Capital matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Ares Capital Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Ares Capital is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 699 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 924 M |