Advanced Micro Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AMD Stock | USD 253.73 3.93 1.57% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 257.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 343.48. Advanced Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Advanced Micro stock prices and determine the direction of Advanced Micro Devices's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Advanced Micro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Advanced Micro's stock price is about 61. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Advanced, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Advanced Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advanced Micro Devices from the perspective of Advanced Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 257.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 343.48. Advanced Micro after-hype prediction price | USD 253.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections. Advanced Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advanced price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advanced using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advanced charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Advanced Micro Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 257.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.82, mean absolute percentage error of 64.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 343.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advanced Micro Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advanced Micro | Advanced Micro Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Advanced Micro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advanced Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advanced Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 254.46 and 261.06, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.8216 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0256 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 343.4763 |
Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advanced Micro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advanced Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advanced Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advanced Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advanced Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advanced Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advanced Micro's historical news coverage. Advanced Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 250.43 and 257.03, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advanced Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advanced Micro Devices is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advanced Micro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advanced Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advanced Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advanced Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 3.30 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
253.73 | 253.73 | 0.00 |
|
Advanced Micro Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Advanced Micro Devices is traded for 253.73. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.32. Advanced is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advanced Micro is about 61.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 253.41. About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.5. Advanced Micro Devices last dividend was issued on the 27th of April 1995. The entity had 2:1 split on the 22nd of August 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.Advanced Micro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advanced Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advanced Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Advanced Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advanced Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.01 | 0.16 | 5.37 | (3.44) | 11.56 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | (8.14) | 8 per month | 2.98 | 0.24 | 8.93 | (5.56) | 19.80 | |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.74 | (5.85) | 15.34 | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | (10.68) | 7 per month | 2.48 | 0.19 | 6.26 | (4.85) | 12.15 | |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 0.20 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 4.63 | (4.71) | 10.33 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | (5.06) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.48 | (3.93) | 15.88 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | (1.51) | 3 per month | 2.06 | 0.17 | 5.00 | (3.61) | 10.80 | |
| SAP | SAP SE ADR | (3.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 1.52 | (2.86) | 5.85 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | (19.18) | 8 per month | 2.17 | 0.15 | 4.89 | (4.19) | 12.91 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | (5.81) | 6 per month | 1.56 | 0.04 | 3.96 | (2.72) | 11.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro
For every potential investor in Advanced, whether a beginner or expert, Advanced Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advanced Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advanced. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advanced Micro's price trends.Advanced Micro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advanced Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advanced Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advanced Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advanced Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advanced Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advanced Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advanced Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advanced Micro Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Advanced Micro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advanced Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advanced Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advanced stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.3 | |||
| Variance | 10.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.65 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advanced Micro
The number of cover stories for Advanced Micro depends on current market conditions and Advanced Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advanced Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advanced Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Advanced Micro Short Properties
Advanced Micro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advanced Micro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advanced Micro Devices often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advanced Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advanced Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advanced Micro. If investors know Advanced will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advanced Micro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Advanced Micro Devices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advanced that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advanced Micro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advanced Micro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advanced Micro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advanced Micro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advanced Micro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Advanced Micro is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advanced Micro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.