Advanced Micro Stock Forward View
| AMD Stock | USD 193.39 -4.35 -2.20% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.171 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2246 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.6386 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.8874 | Wall Street Target Price 289.7174 |
The summary frames Advanced Micro's price response to attention shifts and peer coverage. This section summarizes Advanced Micro's options flow and short interest as sentiment inputs.
Short Interest Metrics for Advanced Micro
Short interest data for Advanced Micro is reported twice a month, providing a lagged but useful view of aggregate bearish positioning in Advanced shares.
200 Day MA 190.4238 | Short Percent 0.0213 | Short Ratio 0.84 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.7 M | 50 Day MA 216.5646 |
RSI Signal: Advanced
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 203.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 569.08.Hype-to-Price Context for Advanced Micro Devices
Investor sentiment toward Advanced reflects the aggregated optimism or pessimism of all market participants. Extremes in Advanced Micro's sentiment have historically preceded significant reversals in price direction.
Overvalued stocks supported by excessive positive sentiment are vulnerable to sharp corrections when reality disappoints. Advanced Micro's sentiment score helps gauge how much of its current price is justified by optimism alone.
Advanced Micro Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
Advanced Micro's implied volatility is a key input in option pricing models such as Black-Scholes. It is the only forward-looking variable in these models, making it the primary driver of option premium changes not explained by price moves in Advanced Micro's stock.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 203.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 569.08.Advanced Micro after-hype prediction price | $ 193.39 |
This analysis adds an attention layer to forecasting, technical studies, analyst estimates, and earnings views.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro can be used to cross-verify projections for Advanced Micro. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Rule 16 Overview for current Advanced contract - Performance Context
Rule 16 applies implied volatility to estimate a daily move of roughly 0.0419% across the 2026-06-18 option cycle. This context is informational: with Advanced Micro near $ 193.39, the daily move estimate is $ 0.081 .
Open Interest - Advanced Options (2026-06-18)
Open interest for Advanced Micro options provides a view of outstanding contracts and broader positioning context.
Advanced Micro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advanced price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advanced using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advanced charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Advanced Micro Cash Forecast
The forecast of Advanced Micro's future cash flows is built on systematic analysis of its historical financial statements, supplemented by sector-specific assumptions and macroeconomic inputs.
Cash | First Reported 1986-03-31 | Previous Quarter 4.8 B | Current Value 5.5 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.3 B |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 203.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 134.90 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 569.08 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advanced Micro | Advanced Micro Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Advanced Micro Devices uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.015 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.3291 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0429 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 569.0773 |
While mean reversion in Advanced Micro is a statistically observable tendency, it operates on uncertain timelines. Positions sized too aggressively against the trend can suffer sustained losses before reversion occurs.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
One key insight from Advanced Micro's price distribution analysis is that the most likely single outcome - the mode - is not necessarily the most important. The width and shape of Advanced Micro's distribution determine how often extreme deviations from the central forecast occur.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical analysis of Advanced Micro reveals distinct patterns in how Advanced Micro's price responds to different categories of news. Advanced Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 189.46 and 197.32, respectively. The most informative signals come from news categories where Advanced Micro has shown consistent and predictable historical reactions.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Advanced Micro Devices assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advanced Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advanced Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advanced Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 3.93 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 37 Events | 8 Events | In 37 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
193.39 | 193.39 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 13th of March 2026 Advanced Micro Devices is traded for 193.39. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Advanced is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 58.14%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advanced Micro is about 86.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 193.21. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.57. Advanced Micro Devices last dividend was issued on the 27th of April 1995. The company completed a 2:1 stock split on 22nd of August 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 37 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro can be used to cross-verify projections for Advanced Micro. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.Related Hype Analysis
Tracking the hype elasticity of Advanced Micro's direct competitors provides a quantified measure of how much news about other companies in the sector affects Advanced Micro's short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ASML | ASML Holding NV | -11.20 | 10 per month | 2.39 | 0.13 | 5.37 | -4.11 | 14.30 | |
| MU | Micron Technology | 7.13 | 10 per month | 3.07 | 0.22 | 9.94 | -6.70 | 20.06 | |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies | 0.74 | 5 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 4.74 | -5.56 | 18.47 | |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | -6.76 | 8 per month | 3.23 | 0.14 | 6.99 | -5.93 | 17.49 | |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | 1.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 4.96 | -4.28 | 16.74 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | -1.15 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.21 | 1.93 | -3.35 | 11.98 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | -3.03 | 10 per month | 3.06 | 0.14 | 5.75 | -5.57 | 14.36 | |
| SAP | SAP SE ADR | 1.46 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 3.08 | -3.33 | 19.03 | |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | -34.28 | 11 per month | 3.91 | 0.09 | 6.12 | -5.21 | 22.94 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 0.72 | 9 per month | 1.48 | 0.07 | 2.61 | -2.96 | 14.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro
Any investor evaluating Advanced must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Advanced Micro's price movement accurately. Advanced Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Advanced Micro Related Equities
The following equities are related to Advanced Micro within the Information Technology space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Advanced Micro against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advanced Micro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Advanced Micro assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Advanced Micro Devices.
Advanced Micro Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Advanced Micro is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Advanced Micro's investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.83 | |||
| Variance | 14.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advanced Micro
Coverage intensity for Advanced Micro Devices matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Advanced Micro Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Advanced Micro Devices matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.6 B |
More Resources for Advanced Stock Analysis
A comprehensive view of Advanced Micro Devices starts with financial statements and ratio context. Ratio context helps frame profitability, efficiency, and growth trends for Advanced Micro Devices Stock. Selected reports below provide context for Advanced Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro can be used to cross-verify projections for Advanced Micro. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion. Analysis related to Advanced Micro should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.171 | Earnings Share 2.61 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.341 | Return On Assets |
Understanding Advanced Micro Devices includes distinguishing between market value and book value, where book value reflects Advanced's accounting equity. Advanced Micro's market capitalization is 315.31 B. With a P/B ratio of 5.0, the market values Advanced Micro well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 308.6 B. Intrinsic value reflects what Advanced Micro's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both the trading price and the book figure. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views.
It is useful to distinguish Advanced Micro's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For Advanced Micro, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 45.87, a P/B ratio of 5.0, a profit margin of 12.52%, and ROE of 7.08%. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.