First Trust Senior Etf Performance

FCT Etf  USD 9.65  -0.07  -0.72%   
The etf has a market beta of 0.11, which conveys very low measured sensitivity to broad market movements. With a sub-1 beta, First Trust typically participates in market rallies at a reduced pace while often limiting downside exposure.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days, First Trust Senior generated negative risk-adjusted returns and added little value for investors with long positions. This reading is usually reviewed beside volatility, downside risk, and benchmark-relative behavior before conviction is increased. In spite of comparatively stable fundamental indicators, First Trust is not utilizing all of its potential. The current price uproar may contribute to short-horizon losses for private investors. Learn More

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 976.00 in First Trust Senior on December 22, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 11.00 from holding First Trust Senior or given up 1.13% of portfolio value over 90 days. First Trust Senior is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 0.3802% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 3% of etfs are less volatile than First, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It works best as a comparative read on return quality, drawdown exposure, and volatility burden. Considering the 90-day investment horizon First Trust is expected to generate 0.46 times more return on investment than the market. However, the ETF is 2.15 times less risky than the market. It trades about -0.05 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.11 per unit of risk.

Historical Prices of First Trust Senior

Below is the normalized historical share price chart for First Trust Senior extending back to May 26, 2004. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of First Trust stands at 9.65, as last reported on the 22nd of March, with the highest price reaching 9.73 and the lowest price hitting 9.64 during the day.
Macro event markers
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

A fundamental principle of ETF forecasting is that prices tend to revert toward historical averages. For First Etf, this mean-reverting tendency has been a useful tool for valuation. Still, some ETFs exhibit persistent mispricings that are only corrected when buying and selling pressure realign.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
9.65 90 days 9.65
about 99.0
According to our probability model, the chance of First Trust moving above the current price in 90 days from now is about 99.0 (This probability chart for First Trust Senior depicts the range of likely prices for First Etf over a 90-day horizon).
Considering the 90-day investment horizon First Trust has a beta of 0.11. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, First Trust's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding First Trust Senior is expected to be smaller as well. Additionally, First Trust Senior has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The ETF is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   First Trust Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Trust

Predicting the direction of First Trust Senior and the broader ETF market involves a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques. Although accurate forecasting remains elusive, the process of modeling future scenarios is a valuable part of investment decision-making. Comparing results from different methods frames the confidence level of their predictions.
The concept of mean reversion suggests that First Trust's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.279.6510.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.309.6810.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
9.309.6810.06
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.629.779.92
Details
Competitive analysis for First Trust compares its financial performance, valuation multiples, and growth trajectory against sector peers. This peer-relative view often uncovers mispricing that single-company analysis would miss.

Primary Risk Indicators

Market volatility over the last 10-20 years has created both risk and opportunity for etf investors. First Trust has seen its share of dramatic price swings during this period. Implementing a hedging strategy and tracking First Trust's volatility and elasticity can help investors in First Trust Senior limit the impact of adverse market moves.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.009
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.11
σ
Overall volatility
0.07
Ir
Information ratio 0.21

Investor Alerts and Insights

Real-time alerts for First Trust allow investors to track important ETF developments as they happen. Reviewing ongoing notifications for First Trust Senior helps identify opportunities and risks before they are fully priced into the market.
First Trust Senior generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
First Trust Senior has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
First Trust Senior has $116 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.39, which is consistent with its industry peers. First Trust Senior has a current ratio of 0.11, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist First Trust until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, First Trust's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like First Trust Senior sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for First to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about First Trust's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The ETF reported last year's revenue of 20.08 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was -11.08 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 20.08 M.
Over 80.0% of the ETF shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: First Trust Senior Floating Rate Income Fund II declares 0.097 dividend

First Trust Fundamentals Growth

Investors assess First Etf by examining First Trust's underlying financial health. Revenue trajectory, earnings quality, profit margins, and leverage levels are among the most closely watched fundamentals that shape First Etf market performance.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

First Trust performance is typically evaluated relative to its benchmark and tracking difference over time. Relative performance helps interpret behavior versus benchmarks or category peers.

For First Trust Senior, this section uses fund disclosures and market reference feeds with Macroaxis normalization rules applied to keep cross-asset comparisons consistent. Intraday timing differences may exist. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on February 28th, 2026