Vista Gold Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| VGZ Stock | USD 2.88 0.30 11.63% |
Vista Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Vista Gold's share price is above 70 at this time. This entails that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Vista, making its price go up or down. Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.06) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.05) | Wall Street Target Price 3 |
Using Vista Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vista Gold from the perspective of Vista Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vista Gold using Vista Gold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vista using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vista Gold's stock price.
Vista Gold Implied Volatility | 1.7 |
Vista Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vista Gold stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vista Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vista Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vista Gold's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vista Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 2.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.55. Vista Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 2.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Gold to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vista contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vista Gold will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Vista Gold trading at USD 2.88, that is roughly USD 0.00306 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vista Gold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vista Gold options at the current volatility level of 1.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Vista Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vista Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vista Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vista Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vista Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vista Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vista Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vista. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vista Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vista price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vista using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vista charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vista Gold Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Vista Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 2.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vista Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vista Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vista Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vista Gold | Vista Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vista Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vista Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vista Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.60, respectively. We have considered Vista Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vista Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vista Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3536 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1238 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0614 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.5512 |
Predictive Modules for Vista Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vista Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vista Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vista Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vista Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vista Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vista Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vista Gold's historical news coverage. Vista Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.14 and 7.91, respectively. We have considered Vista Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vista Gold is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vista Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vista Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vista Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vista Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vista Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.98 | 5.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.88 | 2.88 | 0.00 |
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Vista Gold Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Vista Gold is traded for 2.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Vista is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.98%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vista Gold is about 10934.78%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.83. About 19.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 183.43. Vista Gold recorded a loss per share of 0.07. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 19th of June 2002. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Gold to cross-verify your projections.Vista Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vista Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vista Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Vista Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vista Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USAU | US Gold Corp | (0.30) | 2 per month | 3.39 | 0.07 | 7.02 | (5.03) | 22.04 | |
| BGL | Blue Gold Limited | 0.46 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 13.74 | (15.77) | 41.35 | |
| TRX | Tanzanian Royalty Exploration | 0.01 | 8 per month | 3.92 | 0.13 | 8.70 | (8.00) | 20.25 | |
| DC | Dakota Gold Corp | (0.30) | 2 per month | 2.95 | 0.13 | 5.90 | (4.76) | 26.64 | |
| GLDG | GoldMining | (0.13) | 6 per month | 3.82 | 0.05 | 6.11 | (7.25) | 18.48 | |
| SMID | Smith Midland Corp | 0.03 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.54 | (5.17) | 13.48 | |
| VOXR | Vox Royalty Corp | 0.19 | 6 per month | 2.86 | 0.09 | 5.36 | (4.95) | 11.87 | |
| FF | FutureFuel Corp | 0.14 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.71 | (3.98) | 14.81 | |
| PLG | Platinum Group Metals | (0.30) | 9 per month | 4.48 | 0.09 | 8.91 | (6.73) | 24.10 | |
| CTGO | Contango ORE | (0.26) | 8 per month | 3.22 | 0.11 | 6.50 | (5.58) | 14.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vista Gold
For every potential investor in Vista, whether a beginner or expert, Vista Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vista Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vista. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vista Gold's price trends.Vista Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vista Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vista Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vista Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vista Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vista Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vista Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vista Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vista Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vista Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vista Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vista Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vista stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.04 | |||
| Variance | 25.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.88) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vista Gold
The number of cover stories for Vista Gold depends on current market conditions and Vista Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vista Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vista Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vista Gold Short Properties
Vista Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vista Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vista Gold often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vista Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 122.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 16.9 M |
Additional Tools for Vista Stock Analysis
When running Vista Gold's price analysis, check to measure Vista Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vista Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Vista Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vista Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vista Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vista Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.