Vista Gold Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| VGZ Stock | CAD 2.58 0.08 3.20% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Vista Gold. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vista Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 2.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.41.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vista Gold observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vista Gold observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Vista Gold is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vista Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 2.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.41 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vista Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vista Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vista Gold | Vista Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Vista Gold's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.03 and upside near 9.24.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vista Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vista Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0207 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1735 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0528 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.4125 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vista Gold
Vista Gold's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Vista often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Vista Gold Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Materials space can help frame Vista Gold's pricing and running costs in context. Checking Vista Gold against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets. Combining quantitative ratios with qualitative context such as management quality and market position sharpens peer comparisons.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vista Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Vista Gold stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Vista Gold.
Vista Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vista Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Vista Gold's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 4.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.52 | |||
| Variance | 42.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vista Gold
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Vista Gold can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Vista Gold Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Vista Gold matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 125.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.6 M |
More Resources for Vista Stock Analysis
Understanding Vista Gold starts with reviewing its financial statements and long-term patterns. Key ratios describe profitability, efficiency, and growth.Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vista Gold provides a cross-check on projections for Vista Gold. For information on how to trade Vista Stock refer to our How to Invest in Vista Gold guide.Vista Gold currently shows ROE of -45.43%, market cap of 373.96 Million. Vista Gold data on this page supports broader research - the resources below add portfolio-level context. The supplemental views below help investors decide how Vista Gold complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find investment opportunities.