Toast Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| TOST Stock | USD 26.81 0.20 0.75% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for Toast is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Toast Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.93.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Toast Inc price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Toast. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for Toast presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Toast Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.85 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.93 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toast's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Toast | Toast Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Toast's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 23.70 on the downside to about 29.92 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toast stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toast stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4263 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2419 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8489 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 50.935 |
Other Forecasting Options for Toast
The distribution of Toast's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Toast's chart that simple price charts miss.Toast Related Equities
Toast's market space within the Financials space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Toast's results. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to Toast often signals structural advantages or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toast Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Toast give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Toast Inc.
Toast Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Toast's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Toast's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.02 | |||
| Variance | 9.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Toast
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Toast Inc can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Toast Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Toast Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 607 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
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