Toast Inc Stock Performance
| TOST Stock | USD 26.36 -0.45 -1.68% |
The company secures a Market Sensitivity (Beta) of 1.33, which indicates elevated sensitivity to broad market movements. Market upswings tend to lift Toast more than average, but downturns carry a proportionally larger impact on returns. At this point, Toast Inc has a negative expected return of -0.45%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
Weak | Strong |
During the last 90 trading days, Toast Inc produced negative risk-adjusted performance, which signals weak return efficiency for investors with long positions. This reading is usually reviewed beside volatility, downside risk, and benchmark-relative behavior before conviction is increased. In spite of unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the stock's basic indicators remain comparatively stable, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The newest uproar may also be a sign of mid-term up-swing for the firm's private investors. Learn More
Actual Historical Performance (%)
One Day Return 0.75 | Five Day Return -1.25 | Year To Date Return -21.19 | Ten Year Return -57.11 | All Time Return -57.11 |
1 | Disposition of 4748 shares by Jonathan Vassil of Toast subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 12/31/2025 |
2 | Disposition of 2572 shares by Brian Elworthy of Toast subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 01/26/2026 |
3 | Disposition of 2935 shares by Jonathan Vassil of Toast subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 01/30/2026 |
4 | Is Sound Hound AI Stock a Buy Now | 02/11/2026 |
5 | Value Act Just Doubled Its Stake in This Beaten-Up Saa S Name. Should Investors Be Buying the Stock | 02/25/2026 |
6 | Insider Trading | 03/02/2026 |
7 | Is Toast Quietly Becoming Restaurants Irreplaceable Operating System or Just Another Vendor | 03/06/2026 |
8 | Victory Capital Management Inc. Raises Position in Toast, Inc. TOST | 03/09/2026 |
9 | Acquisition by Stephen Fredette of 70452 shares of Toast subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 03/10/2026 |
10 | Software Stocks Are Crashing, Here Are 4 Stocks to Buy | 03/11/2026 |
11 | Is Toast Pricing Look Attractive After Recent Share Price Weakness | 03/12/2026 |
12 | Disposition of 100750 shares by Aman Narang of Toast subject to Rule 16 b-3 | 03/13/2026 |
13 | Should Toasts Teriyaki Madness Win Shape How Investors View TOSTs Enterprise Growth Story | 03/18/2026 |
14 | Toast Expands Teriyaki Madness Deal As Valuation And Growth Case Evolve | 03/20/2026 |
15 | Fiduciary Financial Group LLC Purchases Shares of 46,784 Toast, Inc. TOST | 03/25/2026 |
| Begin Period Cash Flow | 903 M | |
| Total Cashflows From Investing Activities | -172 M |
Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape
If you had invested $ 3,644 in Toast Inc on December 26, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 963.00 from holding Toast Inc or given up 26.43% of portfolio value over 90 days. Toast Inc does not currently generate positive expected returns and carries 3.1123% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 90-day horizon. In different words, 27% of stocks are less volatile than Toast, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon. Expected Return |
| Risk |
Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price
For Toast Stock, the tendency of price to converge toward a long-term average provides a useful forecasting baseline. Investors have relied on this tendency for decades, though persistent mispricings in some instruments suggest additional risk factors.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds moving above the current price in 90 days |
| 26.36 | 90 days | 26.36 | about 89.05 |
Based on standard probability analysis, the odds of Toast moving above the current price in 90 days from now are about 89.05 . Over this horizon, the return distribution for this stock has leaned toward above-current outcomes historically. (The curve highlights the price band where the market has recently concentrated expectations for Toast Stock over the next 90 days). A narrower shape indicates the market has recently priced Toast Stock into a more concentrated outcome range.
Toast Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Toast
A variety of analytical techniques are available for forecasting Toast Inc and the broader stock market. From technical pattern analysis to statistical models, each method contributes a different perspective on Toast Inc.The mean reversion principle applied to Toast's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Identifying the root cause of Toast's price dislocation is essential before acting on a mean reversion signal.
Primary Risk Indicators
The past 10-20 years have brought considerable volatility to the stock market, with Toast experiencing notable price swings. Toast has reflected this volatile environment with periods of significant price swings.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3616 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1257 |
Investor Alerts and Insights
Alerts and suggestions for Toast give investors a structured way to monitor the stock for material events. Toast Inc alerts cover shifts in fundamentals, technical conditions, and significant market-moving events.| Toast Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Toast Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Toast Inc has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 87.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Fiduciary Financial Group LLC Purchases Shares of 46,784 Toast, Inc. TOST |
Price Density Drivers
Price behavior in Toast reflects the combined effect of buyer and seller positioning dynamics and market sentiment. Reviewing the indicators below provides context for understanding the current drivers of Toast price.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 607 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Toast Fundamentals Growth
Toast Stock performance is fundamentally tied to Toast's financial health and growth outlook. Investors track revenue and earnings growth, margin stability, and balance sheet health for Toast Stock.
| Return On Equity | 0.19 | |||
| Return On Asset | 0.0687 | |||
| Profit Margin | 0.06 % | |||
| Operating Margin | 0.06 % | |||
| Current Valuation | 14.2 B | |||
| Shares Outstanding | 524 M | |||
| Price To Book | 7.61 X | |||
| Price To Sales | 2.55 X | |||
| Revenue | 6.15 B | |||
| Gross Profit | 1.6 B | |||
| EBITDA | 372 M | |||
| Net Income | 342 M | |||
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.18 B | |||
| Cash Per Share | 2.28 X | |||
| Total Debt | 40 M | |||
| Debt To Equity | 0.08 % | |||
| Current Ratio | 3.25 X | |||
| Book Value Per Share | 3.61 X | |||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 661 M | |||
| Earnings Per Share | 0.56 X | |||
| Market Capitalization | 15.67 B | |||
| Total Asset | 3.15 B | |||
| Retained Earnings | -1.26 B | |||
| Working Capital | 1.7 B | |||
Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology
Toast risk-adjusted performance measures whether returns compensate for the volatility borne by holders. Return per unit of risk provides a more stable comparison across instruments and regimes. Toast shows ROE of 18.64%, ROA of 6.87%.
Data shown for Toast Inc is aggregated from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and normalized across reporting formats. Analyst projections are included when active coverage applies. Source publication timing can introduce delays. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.