Timothy Plan Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| TLGAX Fund | USD 12.68 -0.25 -1.93% |
This reference page presents Simple Moving Average forecast data for Timothy Plan Large. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Timothy Plan Large on the next trading day is expected to be 12.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.38.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Timothy Plan Large price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Timothy Plan. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average forecast data for Timothy Plan Large is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Timothy Plan Large on the next trading day is expected to be 12.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Timothy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Timothy Plan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Timothy Plan | Timothy Plan Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Timothy Plan Large for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 11.58 on the downside to about 13.78 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Timothy Plan mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Timothy Plan mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7357 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0061 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1251 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.38 |
Other Forecasting Options for Timothy Plan
Timothy Plan's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Timothy often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Timothy Plan Related Equities
Sizing up Timothy Plan against these stocks within the Large Growth space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking Timothy Plan against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to Timothy Plan often signals structural advantages or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Timothy Plan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Timothy Plan mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Timothy Plan Large.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.25 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.47 |
Timothy Plan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Timothy Plan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Timothy Plan's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8788 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Variance | 1.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Timothy Plan
A coverage review of Timothy Plan Large shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.